Anti-Establishment or Anti-Democrat?

As satisfying as it was to watch traitorous Specter's tear-filled speech and Lincoln's obvious trepidation as she faces certain defeat in the runoff, last night was not an altogether great night for Republicans. In the one actual election, the special election to replace the seat held by the late John Murtha in Pennsylvania’s 12th District, the Republican candidate, Tim Burns, lost by 8 points when many said he should have "run roughshod over" Mark Critz. Now, even the most optimistic folks are falling over themselves to change their prediction that Republicans will gain the 40 plus seats they need to take the House in November.

Specifically, the pundits say the voter approval rating of Obama there is 35%, and 58% disfavor Obamacare. So, what happened? Apparently, Critz, Murtha's aide, was successful in distancing himself from Obama and Pelosi by running a localized election. After all, he never voted for health care or stimulus and he told the voters he would keep bringing federal dollars back to their little district (to build more airports no one uses, perhaps). He also stated that he was pro-gun, anti-abortion and told the voters he opposed health care reform (although he also opposed repealing it).  

Clearly, Critz understood that he needed to distance himself from his party leaders and their platform in order to win and the voters bought it. To me, although disheartening, this is a local outlier and not an indication of what is to come in the fall if Republicans stick to a central message of repealing health care, cutting the budget drastically and reducing the deficit by more than just pennies. I agree that there is an anti-incumbent mood throughout America, as people are sick of politicians generally, but I also believe that voters understand that we cannot afford health care and all of the other programs Obama and his team would continue to promote. In those states that hold incumbent Democrats, the GOP needs to play on ties with Pelosi, Obama, health care and spending, and in those with outside candidates, they must hammer home a fiscally conservative message. If they do this, they can win the House and avoid the type of embarrassment involved in this as well as the House race in upstate New York which was also involved the failure of the GOP to run an effective campaign.