Chris Christie Bests Obama in 2012 Poll

In a Zogby poll of 2012 Republican presidential candidates, Chris Christie is the only Republican candidate that would potentially beat Obama. The poll had Christie beating Obama by a margin of 43 to 40 percent. Mitt Romney would allegedly be in a dead heat with Obama while Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee would fall behind the President.

State House Winners

The 2010 census reapportionment numbers today told of winners and losers state-wise. The lone star state, Texas, was the big winner with a pick up of four House seats and New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania were the biggest losers with a loss of two seats each. Sunny Florida gained two seats while Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington all picked up only one. Conversely, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri and New Jersey all lost a single seat. Let the redistricting begin!

Census Speaks Well for GOP

The 2010 census report that's due out tomorrow will apparently be well received by Republicans. There has been a continued migration from Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states. The biggest gain in population has been in Texas, a GOP heavy state expected to gain up to four new House seats, for a total of 36. The states that lost the most were dark blue New York and purplish Ohio, which will likely lose two seats each.

This population shift, in conjunction with landslide GOP victories in state legislatures in 2010, which will allow GOP majorities to create new districts "to their liking," will add more electoral pressure for Obama and the Dems. Since each House seat represents an electoral vote in the presidential election process, the states that Obama lost will have more votes and the ones he won, less. I can't wait to watch it all unfold.

Bishop Narrowly Bests Altschuler

The last House election is finalized at last, although to a disappointing end. Randy Altschuler conceded to Tim Bishop in the Hamptons race, which Bishop won by only hundreds of votes. This race means that the Republican tally finally stands at plus 63 in the House.

New York 1 Still Undecided

So, finally, officially, we know that CA-11 stayed blue at the hands of Democrat Jerry McNerney, CA-20 went to Democrat Jim Costa, KY-6 stayed in the hands of Democrat Ben Chandler and VA-11 was won narrowly by Democrat Gerry Connolly. But, that ends the bad news as IL-8 was won by Republican Joe Walsh, NY-25 by Republican challenger Ann Marie Buerkle and TX-27 by Republican Blake Farenhold.

BUT, that still leaves pesky NY-1. Democrat Tim Bishop is now in the lead and his prospects look favorable, but this race has still not been called. Republican challenger Randy Altschuler hopes to lessen Bishop's several hundred vote lead, but the outlook is growing dismal. "It will be up to a judge to decide the fate of scores of challenged ballots, but the fact that Altschuler has challenged more ballots is not a good sign."

So, at worst, the Republicans gained 64 House seats and at best, 65. Not a bad days work.

More House News

With Bob Etheridge in North Carolina conceding to Republican Renee Ellmers on Friday and Republican Andy Barr also defeated by Chandler in Kentucky, the GOP gains stand at 61 seats. At this juncture, only five races remain:

New York 1- Democrat Tim Bishop currently holds a razor thin 15-vote lead over Republican Randy Altschuler and the absentee and provisional votes will not be fully counted until tomorrow or the end of the week. Hold on.

New York 25- Republican Ann Marie Buerkle expanded her lead over Democrat Dan Maffei to 567. Since only 200 challenged ballot remain to be counted, it appears this race will be called and some have reported Maffei's concession:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/253835/maffei-concedes-robert-costa

Texas 27- Republican Blake Farenthold continues to lead Democrat Solomon Ortiz by nearly 800 votes in this manual recount. It has been reported that Ortiz has conceded to Farenthold after the recount, but I'm not sure when it will be called.

California 11- Democrat Jerry McNerney has a 1,700 vote-lead over Republican David Harmer, who has yet to concede, but likely will do so by the end of the week.

California 20- Democrat Jim Costa has a 2,422- vote lead over Republican Andy Vidak, who has yet to concede. Again, this one will likely be called this week for Costa.

So, where does that leave us? It appears the Republicans have secured 63 seats and could grab one more in New York 1, where all the votes are still being counted and only 15 votes separate the pols.  

Buerkle Poised for Win

Apparently, Republican Ann Marie Buerkle's lead has widened to 567 votes over Democratic incumbent Dan Maffei and it is beginning to look grim for Maffei. The matter will come to a head Tuesday before the court in Syracuse when their lawyers duke it out over 240 challenged votes. After this, Maffei may ask for a recount, but it is unclear whether he will.

Even with the 240 challenged votes, Maffei can't pull this off. We can only hope he concedes and doesn't drag things on with a needless recount. When he concedes, it will put the Republicans at plus 62 with five outstanding races still yet to be determined.

Results In: Ellmers Bests Etheridge

Democrat Bob Etheridge has finally admitted defeat to Republican Renee Ellmers in North Carolina’s 2nd District race and will concede today at 3 p.m. The recount Etheridge demanded shows that instead of 1,489 votes ahead, Ellmers actually won by 1,489 votes. Excuse me. The final recount was 93,878 votes to 92,389 for Etheridge. Thank goodness the grabby loose cannon has been forced into early retirement. 

With this race concluded, only California 11, California 20, Illinois 8, Kentucky 6, New York 25 and Texas 27 remain to be determined. As it stands now, Republicans gained 61 seats and are poised to gain as many as 66, since it looks like McNerney will hold on.

Bishop Not Declared Winner

Yesterday I wrote that Politico's map declared Tim Bishop the winner of the race in New York's 1st District, and it did. However, that is apparently a mistake because the Democrat is actually trailing Republican Randy Altschuler by 383 votes and Bishop's campaign is calling for a manual recount which is presumably happening now.

Self-Imposed Term Limits from GOP Winners?

Get this.  Half of the new GOP House freshmen and a few of the newly elected GOP senators have promised to limit their congressional tenures and to support new term limits legislation. The self-imposed limits typically range from six to 12 years.

“By term limiting myself to eight years, I can focus on doing what it takes to solve the nation’s problems, instead of doing what it takes to further my political ambitions,” read a press release issued by Rep.-elect Jon Runyan of New Jersey after his primary victory.

While there’s no consensus on what an appropriate length of time in Washington might be, this is a welcome promise. Since we know the full Congress would never vote for a constitutional amendment, politicians are right to force this issue this way. It has to help keep them at least a little more honest.

Miller's Spelling Campaign

Republican Joe Miller, the Republican that won the Alaskan Senatorial primary, is suing in federal court to prevent the counting of any write-in ballots in which a candidate's name is not spelled correctly. Obviously, this takes aim at write-in candidate, sore loser, incumbent Lisa Murkowski. Apparently, the campaign is hoping to have a hearing on the matter as soon as possible.

Alaska's election law states that write-in ballots must be marked with a filled-in oval and with the desired candidate's last name or the name as it appears on the declaration of candidacy. But as election officials deliberated how to move forward when Murkowski announced her independent bid to become Alaska's first successful statewide candidate, they said they would use "discretion," as well as work with a state attorney, to determine how to count votes that might misspell Murkowski's name. 

How exactly will the court decipher the more than 85,000 write-in votes cast? I suppose a common sense approach would hold as even though Murkowski was only one of about 150 write-in candidates, it is unlikely another write-in candidate shares a similar name. 

At last count, the write-in ballots held a 5.5 point advantage over Miller, with absentee and early votes from Juneau, Nome and Fairbanks left to be counted. Like many other races, this is to be continued...

Three? House Races Go to Dems

More than a week after the elections, we still have some outstanding races, but the field is beginning to narrow. On Monday, we learned Washington-2 was lost to Rick Larsen by 2%. Tuesday, Virginia-11, a northern area of Virginia and one of only two blue areas, was also lost by less than a 1,000 votes to Gerry Connolly.

Now, we see our chances in California-11 grow dim. Jerry McNerney, the current California Democratic Representative, has more than quadrupled his lead over Republican David Harmer.

McNerney led by 2,269 votes Wednesday after Alameda County reported its results. He had been ahead by just 441 votes in the 11th District race on Tuesday. Harmer has started raising money for a potential recount. Both candidates are still waiting on absentee tallies from Contra Costa County and San Joaquin County. Those returns are expected by the end of the week.

Health Care Vote Sinks Most Dems

So, I may have been right on the money with my House prediction of 65 when the races become finalized, but I was off in the Senate by at least three. All in all, it was still a very good night as most of the Democrats I care for the least were sent packing.

President Obama can say last night was all about the economy if he chooses, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/11/03/obama-addresses-nation-democrats-lose-house/ and it very well might have been to a very limited degree. However, the fact is, we all know the voting came down to the health care bill as those who supported it, were largely defeated.  Here is a list:

Tom Perriello (VA)

Glenn Nye (VA)

Suzanne Kosmas (FL)

Alan Grayson (FL)

Baron Hill (IN)

Carol Shea-Porter (NH) 

Allen Boyd (FL) 

Kathy Dahlkemper (PA)

Chris Carney (PA)

Paul Kanjorski (PA)

Blanche Lincoln (AR)

Ron Klein (FL)

Debbie Halvorson (IL)
Phil Hare (IL)
Mark Schauer (MI)
Jim Oberstar (MN)
Dina Titus (NV)
John Hall (NY)
Bob Etheridge (NC)
Mary Jo Kilroy (OH)
Zack Space (OH)
Patrick Murphy (PA)
John Spratt (SC)
Steve Kagen (WI)
Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1)
Harry Mitchell (AZ)
John Salazar (CO)
Bill Foster (IL)
Earl Pomeroy (ND)
Charlie Wilson (OH)
Ciro Rodriguez (TX)

Even a single Republican, Joseph Cao (LA), lost as a result of voting "yes" on the bill in November even though he changed his vote when the bill returned in March.

Dems Hunker Down

The most 'open, honest, ethical congress in history' has been a failure on all three fronts. It's ironic that the Democratic majority that came in with such a bang four years ago is going out with a whimper behind closed doors.

Let's hope they stay behind closed doors so the GOP can unwind their big government socialistic healthcare debacle.

65% Would Vote to Scrap Congress

On the heels of a major midterm election, a new Rasmussen national survey finds that 65% of likely voters say if they had the option on election day, they would get rid of every member of Congress and start with a clean slate. Unsurprisingly, among those voting, 84% of mainstream voters would opt to get rid of them and 64% of the political class (read: liberal elitists) would vote to keep them all.

Among the "dump 'em" sect were 82% Republicans and 78% of unaffiliated voters. Democrats are almost evenly divided as 44% want to keep them and 38% prefer to kick them out. 

Despite Democratic loyalty to incumbents, only 12% of all voters think Congress is doing a good job. This begs the question of why the majority of 44% of Democrats think Congress is doing a poor job, but want to keep them in their seats. 

Despite Democratic schizophrenia, 62% feel it would be better for the country if most congressional incumbents were defeated next week. I agree with this contingency, but I have to admit, I want to start with the Democratic incumbents. Maybe after that, we can force the issue of term limits and get rid of these lifetime, do-nothing, entitled congresspeople once and for all.

Enthusiasm Gap Holds True: Republicans Leading Democrats in Nevada Voting

Republican voters continue to show up in Nevada in higher numbers than the Democrats to cast their votes in early voting. In fact, they have increased their turnout lead in the largest counties in Nevada, Clark and Washoe, to almost 4%.

Total Clark and Washoe County early vote plus the mail-ins in Clark (mail-in numbers not available in Washoe):

•Democrats: 113,193 (26.8%)

•Republicans: 100,702 (30.4%)

Angle Tastefully Responds to Behar

Joy Behar is a hack with no political intelligence and I usually wouldn't waste my time writing about her, but I just love this. Apparently, Sharron Angle sent Behar flowers in response to her comments that she is "going to hell" for her stance on illegal immigration. The card attached thanked Behar for "helping her raise $150,000 online yesterday."

Of course, the crass Behar responded that “those flowers were picked by illegal immigrants" and of course, she added, "they’re not voting for you, bitch.” As the writer pointed out, they're actually not supposed to be voting at all. And for that matter, neither is anyone from the Bronx, the place Behar told Angle to "bring her ad" and "see what happens."

When you listen to the dialogue, who do you think best characterizes the word "bitch?"

The Spirit of Self Approval

I usually don't read the New York Times, for obvious reasons, but every once in a while, it contains a beautifully crafted essay that isn't laced with farcical facts and left wing political jabs. The article linked to my title is certainly a great example of this. Of course, in it, Brooks makes fun of the collective psychoses of the Democratic party, which could have something to do with my appreciation for it. Who is to say?

Seriously, he tells us we, too, can "love ourselves, even in trying circumstances" by abiding by three lessons the Democrats have held dear this year. First, do not dwell on negative facts, polls, or circumstances. "Over the past year, many Democrats have resolutely paid attention to those things that make them feel good, and they have carefully filtered out those negative things that make them feel sad." For instance, they continuously discuss Christine O’Donnell and Carl Paladino rather than Rob Portman, Dan Coats, John Boozman and Roy Blunt, who are likely to actually win their races. Why? "It doesn’t feel good when your opponents are experienced people who simply have different points of view." 

Similarly, the Dems have picked fights with the Tea Party movement, rather than speaking to the "independent moderates who supported President Obama in 2008 but flocked away during the health care summer of 2009 and now support the GOP by landslide proportions." Why? "Losing friends makes you sad. It is better to not think about why these things happen."

Second, do not forget that "many great geniuses were unappreciated in their lifetimes." As President Obama admitted on the campaign trail, Americans are too stupid to appreciate "the grandeur of their accomplishments." They are moving to the right in the polls because they are scared and not because they are pissed and unhappy with his policies. 

Third, "You are the hero of your own children’s adventure story." Never admit reality. It simply isn't true that "parties that promote unpopular policies tend to get punished at election time." Instead, in your story, you are the caped crusader fighting evil and you must push on no matter the cost (even if it means losing scores of congressional seats). 

If you follow these rules, you can't lose, except at the polls.

"Better the Devil You Know"

Mississippi Democratic House Representative Gene Taylor told a newspaper he did not vote for President Obama in 2008 and instead voted for John McCain. Specifically, he said, “I did not vote for Obama. I voted for McCain. Better the devil you know.”

Whether it's true or fiction, it shows the lengths Democrats will go to to distance themselves from the President. Better yet, it shows the lengths these egomaniacs will go to to keep their seats. Taylor's district voted for McCain to the tune of 67% in 2008, and Taylor’s battle with Republican Steve Palazzo is neck and neck. I hope his constituents don't go with the devil they know, as he appears to be a big, fat phony.

Fiorina Closes in on Boxer

Carly Fiorina is closing in on Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer in a race that has remained a virtual tie for several weeks. With less than two weeks to go until election day, Boxer must be exceedingly nervous that Fiorina has inched one percentage closer to taking her senate seat. The latest Rasmussen telephone survey of likely voters shows Boxer getting 48% while Fiorina gets 46%, 3% prefer some other candidate and another 3% are undecided. 

Of course, as this race inches closer, so does the one in Pennsylvania, to the dismay of the GOP. Toomey, who held a ten-point lead, now only has 4% on Sestak. However, I still think Toomey will take it.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate