MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU AND YOURS!

America: The Last Stronghold of Faith

I couldn't resist copying and pasting part of this article from Tony Blankley. I hope you will be as inspired and proud as I was in our country when you read it. There is real beauty in liberty.

When a democratic public loses faith in the future -- as France did in the 1930s, as Britain did in the 1970s, and as too many Americans have today -- it is something to promptly correct, not secretly rejoice in. Optimism is a source of our strength.

Of course, in this week before Christmas, Christians are particularly reminded of the reason for optimism and faith -- Jesus was born 2010 years ago to redeem us.

But whatever our religion, or lack of a religion, Americans have solid political grounds for swelling with optimism as we end 2010.

For me, the miracle of the American spirit began to reveal itself in the late spring of 2009. We were still in the midst of an economic meltdown. Our homes and 401(k)s were (and for many of us still are) shockingly reduced in value.

Many of us had lost our jobs or had our incomes substantially reduced. The greatest corporation in American history -- General Motors -- was going bankrupt. The great Wall Street banks that commanded the heights of world finance were illiquid and moving toward insolvency. And the newly inaugurated president, in the early weeks of February, had talked about our economic collapse being a catastrophe from which we might never recover.

Most of the country had turned fearful (I know I was scared -- and so were some very experienced New York financiers whom I personally knew.) President Obama started applying the typical remedies: bailouts, nationalizations, trillion-dollar stimulus -- spreading the wing of the state to "protect" the helpless people.

And then the American miracle occurred; not in Washington, but in the hearts and heads of the American people. The polls started to show that the American people wanted Washington to do less, not more. They didn't want to be sheltered under the wing of the state.

The American people feared the permanent loss of liberty more than they feared the temporary loss of their income or property.

The tea parties self-formed without leadership from above. But millions of people who didn't join the tea parties nonetheless endorsed their sentiments and values -- so that by last month, polls showed that the tea parties were more identified with than the Republican Party, which itself had just won the greatest election victory in well over half a century.

No other people in the world would have responded to economic danger by seeking more liberty and less government protection.

No other people would have thought to themselves, "If I have to suffer economically in order not to steal from my grandchildren, so be it."

We know this is not true of other nations. Just look in the streets of Greece, France, Ireland ... my dear old England found its streets filled with violent people demanding their "right" to retire early or have heavily subsidized university fees or guaranteed government jobs -- even if it means the impoverishment of their progeny.

Such attitudes reflect not a faith in their future -- but an indifference to the future of their civilization.

I believe that 2011 will reveal an American people who will go into the streets not with violence to protest government spending cuts -- but in peace and discipline to protest any failure by their government to make such cuts.

So in this Christmas season, as many of us prepare to fall to our knees in thanks for the gift of our eternal optimism and salvation, let us also celebrate the continuing miracle of the American people's abiding love of liberty -- and acceptance of the sacrifices it will take to keep that liberty.

Merry Christmas, and, pray God, continue to Bless America.

2010 Tax-Friendly Politicians and Groups

Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) just issued its naughty and nice list for 2010. In it, it rates various politicians under the category "naughty" if they have taken a position suggesting they are in favor of more taxes and "nice" those that have done the opposite.

As expected, President Obama topped the naughty list along with Robert Gibbs and EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson for her campaign to tax and fine emissions-causers. However, there were surprises as Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels made the list for even considering a VAT. 

The nice list encompassed the tea party movement, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie "for staring down government union bosses" (woo woo!) and even Snooki, for busting Obama's inclusion of a 10% tanning tax in Obamacare. And last but not least, House member Charlie Rangel made the list, "for lowering at least one American's tax burden." You gotta love that sarcasm.

State House Winners

The 2010 census reapportionment numbers today told of winners and losers state-wise. The lone star state, Texas, was the big winner with a pick up of four House seats and New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania were the biggest losers with a loss of two seats each. Sunny Florida gained two seats while Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington all picked up only one. Conversely, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri and New Jersey all lost a single seat. Let the redistricting begin!

Census Speaks Well for GOP

The 2010 census report that's due out tomorrow will apparently be well received by Republicans. There has been a continued migration from Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states. The biggest gain in population has been in Texas, a GOP heavy state expected to gain up to four new House seats, for a total of 36. The states that lost the most were dark blue New York and purplish Ohio, which will likely lose two seats each.

This population shift, in conjunction with landslide GOP victories in state legislatures in 2010, which will allow GOP majorities to create new districts "to their liking," will add more electoral pressure for Obama and the Dems. Since each House seat represents an electoral vote in the presidential election process, the states that Obama lost will have more votes and the ones he won, less. I can't wait to watch it all unfold.

Dem Leaders Refuse to Attend Tax Bill Signing

The $900 billion tax cut and unemployment benefits package is now the law of the land. The tax cuts are with us for another two years. Period.

The signing ceremony was conciliatory between the President, the GOP and most members of his party, but not all. Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi were invited, but had "scheduling conflicts," aides said. Right. How juvenile. Thank God at least Pelosi will be in the distant background very, very soon.

Health Care Split

The repeat Rasmussen surveys on health care show a general unpopularity, but more interestingly, they show the break down by legislative area of concern:

One little-noted aspect of the debate was a disagreement over the purpose of the legislation. Most voters identified cost as the biggest problem with health care in America today, but about one-in-four said the lack of universal coverage was the top issue. Among those who see the lack of universal coverage as the biggest problem, 86% favored the legislation. However, among the majority who see cost as the biggest issue, 68% opposed the health care bill.

Democratic Dementia

As everyone, I am shocked that the Democrats would submit the Senate omnibus budget bill for a vote given the political climate. It’s as if they saw the midterm elections as a normal partisan pendulum swing rather than a mandate against pet projects, deficit increases and Obamacare. 

Apparently the bill has over 2,000 pages filled with various handouts for unnecessary projects in all fifty states. It's a bill that was written long before the November elections that both parties should've scrapped in light of the obvious convictions of the voters. A continuing resolution would suite us all just fine, but, nope. Democrats are going for it. At this point, I have to believe they just don't care what the voters want, even if voting in kind could gain them reelection. It's complete insanity, especially during a lame duck session, to propose such obvious waste which will do the one thing the majority of Americans oppose -- add to the national deficit.

Watching the opposing party routinely commit suicidal acts would be funny, if it didn't have such dire consequences for the rest of us. Let's hope the moderate Democrats in the house stand up against this, as I predict they will. Also, let's hope the Rinos that run with this bill are held accountable in the coming election cycles. 

Kagan's Recusal Could Kill Obamacare

As of yesterday, Americans are aware of the ruling that found Obamacare unconstitutional since it allows Congress to compel Americans to buy health insurance. We are also aware of the left's knee-jerk response to the ruling, which basically involves a Congressional amendment to allow the law to squeak past the constitutionality issue. However, aside from the fact that the economics of the bill are not viable without the mandate, everyone but Jennifer Rubin overlooked this:

[The ultimate decision] will rest with the Supreme Court, whether the case goes directly there, as Republicans are urging, or whether it stops first in the 4th Circuit (which, I would venture, is very likely to uphold the district court ruling). But here's the tricky part: Justice Elena Kagan, having served in the Obama Justice Department, is surely to recuse herself. With the "liberals" one judge down, even a Kennedy vote to uphold the individual mandate would presumably result in a 4-4 tie. And guess what? If there is a tie, the lower ruling stands. In other words, this is really bad for ObamaCare advcoates.

This must be making the White House very nervous.

60% of People Favor Repeal of Health Care

The latest Rasmussen survey shows that 60% of likely voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law while only 34% are opposed to repeal. Support for repeal has ranged from 50% to 63% in weekly tracking since March. 

It will be interesting to see how the polling shifts as people take note of the federal bench's decision today. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-13/u-s-health-care-law-requirement-thrown-out-by-judge.html) I predict the numbers will increase when people consider the opinion and the unconstitutionality of forcing consumers to buy a service generally.

Voters Want Spending Slashed Ahead of Deficit Reduction

A new Rasmussen poll finds that 57% of likely voters think reducing federal government spending is more important than reducing the deficit. In fact, only 34% thought that reducing the deficit should be the first priority. Of course, as always, there was a marked divide across ideological and political lines. Sixty-five percent of so-called mainstream voters believe cutting spending is more important, while 72% of the political liberal class say the primary emphasis should be on deficit reduction. About 74% of Republicans and 50% of Independents say cutting spending is more important than reducing the deficit and Democrats are narrowly divided on the question. 

51% Say They Are Worse Off Under Obama

Fifty-one percent of Americans now say they are worse off than they were two years ago when President Barack Obama took office, a Bloomberg National Poll shows. The pessimism cuts across political parties and age groups, and is common to both sexes.

Bishop Narrowly Bests Altschuler

The last House election is finalized at last, although to a disappointing end. Randy Altschuler conceded to Tim Bishop in the Hamptons race, which Bishop won by only hundreds of votes. This race means that the Republican tally finally stands at plus 63 in the House.

More Evidence We Should Cut California Off

The Berkeley City Council will consider a resolution that would declare the Army private suspected of leaking classified information to WikiLeaks a hero and call for his release.

The council plans a vote Tuesday on the resolution in support of Pfc. Bradley Manning, who is being held in a military brig in Virginia. A city commission already has approved it.

Bob Meola, who authored the resolution, tells the San Francisco Chronicle that Manning is a patriot who deserves a medal.

Federal officials have criticized the leaks, saying they could endanger lives.

Leaders of the famously left-leaning city have weighed in on controversial national issues before, including votes to advise that a Marine recruitment office wasn't welcome downtown and to force local compliance with United Nations human rights treaties.

Unemployment Hitting Youth the Hardest

On Friday, the unemployment figure creeped up to 9.8%, which caused economists to wring their hands and begin to assess the "recovery" in terms of history. When they compared the previous recoveries from all 10 American recessions since 1948, this year's figures were bleak as only the 2001 recovery took longer to raise unemployment figures back to pre-recession numbers.

This is the worst recession on record, but when will the 15.1 million unemployed Americans get back to work? The jobless rate has remained above 9% for 19 straight months, the longest stretch on record since 1949, and it's affecting everyone.

Not surprisingly, high school dropouts have the highest rate of unemployment at 15.7%, but, right behind them are college graduates at 5.1%. In fact, those at the beginning of their life cycle are suffering at a much greater rate:

Age 16 to 19......21.5 %

Age 20 to 24......9.3 %

Age 45 to 54......8.1 %

Age 55 and up....7.3 %

http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/marksjarvis_on_money/2010/12/unemployment-for-college-graduates-and-people-over-45-hit-highs.html??track=ct-daywatch-12610

All those college kids and hipsters that got out the vote for Obama must be cursing him now.

Sixty Percent Say Congress Won't Cut Spending

Despite the president's bipartisan deficit reduction commission and the Republican's pledge to slash spending, most voters continue to expect the government to keep spending our money. A new Rasmussen poll finds that just 33% of likely voters think it is at least somewhat likely that Congress will significantly reduce government spending over the next year. However, 60% say a significant reduction in government spending is unlikely. Interestingly, the 60% is comprised of 63% of Republicans and 73% of voters not affiliated with either political party whereas Democrats are evenly divided on the question.

The party that introduces legislation that increases our budget will be called on the carpet this time around. I know the GOP won't attempt this, but I hope they also don't squander the opportunity to place as many cost cutting pieces of legislation on Obama's desk as possible. People need to see a real sea change in the party's fiscal responsibility to once again trust the convictions of the party.

House Votes No Tax Cuts for "Rich"

The House voted 234-188 today to pass legislation that would extend the Bush-era tax cuts only for those making less than $200,000 or $250,000 as a family. Twenty Democrats, Brian Baird (WA), Dan Boren (OK), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA), Artur Davis (AL), Lloyd Doggett (TX), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD), Ron Klein (FL), Jim Matheson (UT), Mike McIntyre (NC), Mike McMahon (NY), Jerry McNerney (CA), Walt Minnick (ID), Gwen Moore (WI), Jim Moran (VA), Collin Peterson (MN), Earl Pomeroy (ND), Bobby Scott (VA), Gene Taylor (MI), Mike Thompson (CA) and Pete Visclosky (IN) voted against the bill after 33 had defected in a previous test vote. Three Republicans, Walter Jones (NC), Ron Paul (TX) and John Duncan (TN), voted with Democrats to renew only the middle-class cuts.

This vote is superfluous, however, since Senate Republicans have vowed to filibuster the proposal. They have pledged to hold out for an extension on all cuts, making Pelosi the silliest sitting duck.

Republicans Pledge to Fillibuster All Lame Duck Bills

All 42 Senate Republicans have pledged to refuse to vote for cloture on any bill until the federal government is funded beyond this week and the Bush tax cuts are addressed before they expire December 31. Apparently, they sent a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid this morning stating their intention to stifle any quick passage of bills Democrats are considering taking up before addressing the tax cuts. The two most publicized such bills relate to a defense authorization that includes a repeal of the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy and the Dream Act, giving some illegal immigrants who came to the U.S. as children a path to legal residence.

Of course, to politicize the issue, Reid said he is "also lining up action on a labor-backed bill to guarantee collective bargaining rights to first responders, such as police and firefighters, and a bill to extend health care coverage and compensation to people who worked in the World Trade Center ruins after 9/11 and since became sick." That way, he can condemn the Republicans for their obvious homophobia and refusing to take care of 9-11 victims. Let him do it. The GOP is attempting to do the responsible thing in this lame duck session and can remind voters in 2012 that four Democrats voted against the earmark ban:

•Jon Tester (Montana)

•Ben Nelson (Nebraska)

•Kent Conrad (North Dakota)

•Joe Manchin (West Virginia).

39 Senators Vote to Quash Earmarks

Today on Capital Hill, thirty-nine senators voted in support of a three-year moratorium on appropriations earmarks, the strongest vote against pork barrel legislation to date. In fact, the 56-39 vote on the moratorium contrasts with one last March which was defeated 68-29. Seven Democrats (Evan Bayh of Indiana; Michael Bennet of Colorado; Russ Feingold of Wisconsin; Claire McCaskill of Missouri; Bill Nelson of Florida, Colorado’s Udall, and Mark Warner of Virginia) joined the majority Republican vote and eight Republicans (Robert Bennett of Utah; Thad Cochran of Mississippi; Susan Collins of Maine; James Inhofe of Oklahoma, Richard Lugar of Indiana; Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Richard Shelby of Alabama, and George Voinovich of Ohio) defected.

If the parties cannot agree on a budget for 2011 without earmarks, House Speaker Boehner may have to fight the fight next year, when the GOP will be in power and able to rewrite the 2011 budget with deeper spending cuts. Incoming House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said that his party would not consider bills containing earmarks for a vote when they take the reigns. “That is the intention, that we’re really serious about changing the culture in Washington,” Cantor said. “Earmarks have become symptomatic of a culture gone bad.”

This is a step in the right direction. The list of Republican defectors should figure prominently in the next wave of senatorial elections. There is no justifying duck ponds and private airports with our current deficit.

New York 1 Still Undecided

So, finally, officially, we know that CA-11 stayed blue at the hands of Democrat Jerry McNerney, CA-20 went to Democrat Jim Costa, KY-6 stayed in the hands of Democrat Ben Chandler and VA-11 was won narrowly by Democrat Gerry Connolly. But, that ends the bad news as IL-8 was won by Republican Joe Walsh, NY-25 by Republican challenger Ann Marie Buerkle and TX-27 by Republican Blake Farenhold.

BUT, that still leaves pesky NY-1. Democrat Tim Bishop is now in the lead and his prospects look favorable, but this race has still not been called. Republican challenger Randy Altschuler hopes to lessen Bishop's several hundred vote lead, but the outlook is growing dismal. "It will be up to a judge to decide the fate of scores of challenged ballots, but the fact that Altschuler has challenged more ballots is not a good sign."

So, at worst, the Republicans gained 64 House seats and at best, 65. Not a bad days work.

64% Will Skip Black Friday-like Situations

Eight to ten percent more Americans are choosing to avoid the crowds this holiday season than last by shopping online. The Rasmussen Reports survey shows that 64% say they'll do at least some of their holiday shopping online this year. Americans are becoming more and more tech saavy; however, 35% still say they will not go online for any of their holiday shopping.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Enjoy the turkey, the stuffing, the pie and especially, the booze.

61% Oppose New Airport Security Measures

Sixty-one percent of likely voters oppose the newly enhanced security measures at the airports and also found that 48% said they would probably seek alternatives to flying because of the new measures. 

For the sake of those of us that have no choice but to fly, I hope that the knuckleheads don't refuse the pat downs and TSA personnel doesn't unnecessarily grope. Have you seen those people?   

More House News

With Bob Etheridge in North Carolina conceding to Republican Renee Ellmers on Friday and Republican Andy Barr also defeated by Chandler in Kentucky, the GOP gains stand at 61 seats. At this juncture, only five races remain:

New York 1- Democrat Tim Bishop currently holds a razor thin 15-vote lead over Republican Randy Altschuler and the absentee and provisional votes will not be fully counted until tomorrow or the end of the week. Hold on.

New York 25- Republican Ann Marie Buerkle expanded her lead over Democrat Dan Maffei to 567. Since only 200 challenged ballot remain to be counted, it appears this race will be called and some have reported Maffei's concession:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/253835/maffei-concedes-robert-costa

Texas 27- Republican Blake Farenthold continues to lead Democrat Solomon Ortiz by nearly 800 votes in this manual recount. It has been reported that Ortiz has conceded to Farenthold after the recount, but I'm not sure when it will be called.

California 11- Democrat Jerry McNerney has a 1,700 vote-lead over Republican David Harmer, who has yet to concede, but likely will do so by the end of the week.

California 20- Democrat Jim Costa has a 2,422- vote lead over Republican Andy Vidak, who has yet to concede. Again, this one will likely be called this week for Costa.

So, where does that leave us? It appears the Republicans have secured 63 seats and could grab one more in New York 1, where all the votes are still being counted and only 15 votes separate the pols.  

Buerkle Poised for Win

Apparently, Republican Ann Marie Buerkle's lead has widened to 567 votes over Democratic incumbent Dan Maffei and it is beginning to look grim for Maffei. The matter will come to a head Tuesday before the court in Syracuse when their lawyers duke it out over 240 challenged votes. After this, Maffei may ask for a recount, but it is unclear whether he will.

Even with the 240 challenged votes, Maffei can't pull this off. We can only hope he concedes and doesn't drag things on with a needless recount. When he concedes, it will put the Republicans at plus 62 with five outstanding races still yet to be determined.

Results In: Ellmers Bests Etheridge

Democrat Bob Etheridge has finally admitted defeat to Republican Renee Ellmers in North Carolina’s 2nd District race and will concede today at 3 p.m. The recount Etheridge demanded shows that instead of 1,489 votes ahead, Ellmers actually won by 1,489 votes. Excuse me. The final recount was 93,878 votes to 92,389 for Etheridge. Thank goodness the grabby loose cannon has been forced into early retirement. 

With this race concluded, only California 11, California 20, Illinois 8, Kentucky 6, New York 25 and Texas 27 remain to be determined. As it stands now, Republicans gained 61 seats and are poised to gain as many as 66, since it looks like McNerney will hold on.

Rangel Asks House to Go Easy on Him

House Representative Charles Rangel asked today for “fairness and mercy” as he awaits his sentencing from the ethics committee, which found him guilty on 11 counts of violating House ethics rules. The ethics panel will meet at noon Thursday to consider his sanction, although most have promised it will be nothing but a reprimand.

How can 40 witnesses, 30,000 pages of transcripts, over 550 exhibits measure against my forty years of service and commitment to this body I love so much? I ask the committee in reviewing the sanctions to take that into serious consideration, as well as the effects this ordeal has had on my wife, family and constituents. I hope my four decades of service merit a sanction that is in keeping with and no greater than House precedents and also contains a drop of fairness and mercy.

In speaking, Rangel finally admitted to wrongdoing in making his financial disclosures over the years, but did not go into any specifics about his "omission." 

I would say he made mistakes. Any non-politician would've been fined into bankruptcy or in jail. He is a disgrace. A reprimand is a joke and so is the ethics process.

Voters Say Extend the Tax Cuts to All

According to Rasmussen, voters want Congress to continue the Bush tax cuts when they enter into their lame duck session. Specifically, 50% of likely voters want them extended for all Americans rather than continuing them for all but the "wealthy." Forty-four percent think they should be extended for everyone but the "wealthy."

President Obama insisted that only tax cuts for individuals who earn less than $200,000 annually and couples with a yearly income of less than $250,000 be extended temporarily. However, after the midterm elections he expressed a willingness to perhaps temporarily extend all of the cuts. If Congress fails to act by December 31, 2010, the effective federal tax rates of all tax-paying Americans will increase to pre-Bush levels.

Bishop Not Declared Winner

Yesterday I wrote that Politico's map declared Tim Bishop the winner of the race in New York's 1st District, and it did. However, that is apparently a mistake because the Democrat is actually trailing Republican Randy Altschuler by 383 votes and Bishop's campaign is calling for a manual recount which is presumably happening now.

"Quantitative Easing"

Bishop Beats Altschuler?

Politico hasn't written a story about New York's 1st District, but it's calling the election in Democrat Tim Bishop's favor on its election map. The last story it printed featured Republican Randy Altschuler leading Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop by 383 votes and Bishop's campaign calling for a full manual recount. What's the deal? 

Self-Imposed Term Limits from GOP Winners?

Get this.  Half of the new GOP House freshmen and a few of the newly elected GOP senators have promised to limit their congressional tenures and to support new term limits legislation. The self-imposed limits typically range from six to 12 years.

“By term limiting myself to eight years, I can focus on doing what it takes to solve the nation’s problems, instead of doing what it takes to further my political ambitions,” read a press release issued by Rep.-elect Jon Runyan of New Jersey after his primary victory.

While there’s no consensus on what an appropriate length of time in Washington might be, this is a welcome promise. Since we know the full Congress would never vote for a constitutional amendment, politicians are right to force this issue this way. It has to help keep them at least a little more honest.

Miller's Spelling Campaign

Republican Joe Miller, the Republican that won the Alaskan Senatorial primary, is suing in federal court to prevent the counting of any write-in ballots in which a candidate's name is not spelled correctly. Obviously, this takes aim at write-in candidate, sore loser, incumbent Lisa Murkowski. Apparently, the campaign is hoping to have a hearing on the matter as soon as possible.

Alaska's election law states that write-in ballots must be marked with a filled-in oval and with the desired candidate's last name or the name as it appears on the declaration of candidacy. But as election officials deliberated how to move forward when Murkowski announced her independent bid to become Alaska's first successful statewide candidate, they said they would use "discretion," as well as work with a state attorney, to determine how to count votes that might misspell Murkowski's name. 

How exactly will the court decipher the more than 85,000 write-in votes cast? I suppose a common sense approach would hold as even though Murkowski was only one of about 150 write-in candidates, it is unlikely another write-in candidate shares a similar name. 

At last count, the write-in ballots held a 5.5 point advantage over Miller, with absentee and early votes from Juneau, Nome and Fairbanks left to be counted. Like many other races, this is to be continued...

Three? House Races Go to Dems

More than a week after the elections, we still have some outstanding races, but the field is beginning to narrow. On Monday, we learned Washington-2 was lost to Rick Larsen by 2%. Tuesday, Virginia-11, a northern area of Virginia and one of only two blue areas, was also lost by less than a 1,000 votes to Gerry Connolly.

Now, we see our chances in California-11 grow dim. Jerry McNerney, the current California Democratic Representative, has more than quadrupled his lead over Republican David Harmer.

McNerney led by 2,269 votes Wednesday after Alameda County reported its results. He had been ahead by just 441 votes in the 11th District race on Tuesday. Harmer has started raising money for a potential recount. Both candidates are still waiting on absentee tallies from Contra Costa County and San Joaquin County. Those returns are expected by the end of the week.

Voters Optimistic on Washington?

A new survey finds that the number of voters expecting more partisanship in Washington has declined to its lowest level since March of 2009. Specifically, 49% of likely voters think politics will be more partisan over the coming year. This figure represents a decline from 58% a month ago and the first time the number has fallen into the 40s since the first two months of Obama's presidency.

Similarly, 27% believe there will be more cooperation between the political parties over the next year, which is up 10 points from a month ago and the highest level of optimism since June 2009. Although, 25% of voters are not sure what will happen to the partisan divide. 

Nine Open House Races Prevent Final Tally

A week after the elections, nine races in the House of Representatives are still too close to call:

NY-01: Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop led by approximately 3,500 votes on election night, and many called the race, but a subsequent recanvassing shifted the momentum to Republican Randy Altschuler, who now leads by 392 votes. Within the next week, the race will be determined by about 9,000 absentee and military ballots which both campaigns are studying now. 

NY-25: Syracuse and suburban Rochester were narrowly split on their candidate. Incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei trails Republican Ann Marie Buerkle by 684 votes. A recent recanvassing resulted in both candidates losing votes, but Maffei's total was marginalized more. The campaigns are now counting 12,000 absentee ballots. 

TX-27: In Texas, Republican Blake Fahrenhold is  up by 8/10 of a point, or 800 votes, against Solomon Ortiz, the Democrat.

IL-08: In Illinois, the Republican, Joe Walsh is beating Democrat Melissa Bean by less than 450 votes and this will come down to the absentee ballots as well.

CA-20: Republican Andy Vidak is besting Democrat Jim Costa by a score of 50.8% to 49.2%, which amounts to about 1,000 votes.

CA-11: Democrat Jerry McNerney has a less than 400-vote lead over Republican challenger David Harmer, which is obviously, too close to call.

WA-2: With 95.3% reporting, the Democrat, Rick Larsen has a 4,000 vote lead over Republican John Koster. This is still close, but appears that it will go blue.

KY-06: Democrat Ben Chandler has an exact 600-vote lead over Republican Andy Barr in the blue grass state.

VA-11: The Democrat Gerry Connolly has about a 1,000 vote-lead over Republican challenger Keith Fimian in a northern Virginia territory.

So, it looks as if the GOP is poised to take about five more seats, bringing their total to 65 if the absentee votes lean conservatively, as they generally have in the past. The crazy thing? The two recounts underway in New York State, where the GOP has already plucked 5, could make New York the state in which the GOP nets the most House seats this cycle! As it now stands, New York is currently tied with Pennsylvania and Ohio at five seats apiece. If Altschuler or Buerkle win their race, New York will have lead the House count!

Chris Matthews is an Ass

In his election night coverage, Chris Matthews, obviously ruffled by the night's events and Michelle Bachmann's sign about the loss of his "tingle," demonstrated a complete lack of professionalism and a blatant political bias. I know he was upset about the night's events and the sign behind Bachmann that asked him about his present "tingle," but he really acted like an ass. She should refuse to appear again on his show unless he apologizes. Decorum in political discussion is essential in a democracy.

On top of his rudeness, Matthews protests that he never used the word "tingle" when describing the feeling he got when the then Democratic Presidential hopeful spoke. Actually, what he said on two separate occasions was more embarrassing. He first described the feeling as a "furrowing up his leg" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3m9Gbb6NSwM and then as a "thrill, up my leg, all over me." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVwWDj0VtG4 Yuck. 

Although I disdain Chris Matthews, the person, I am more upset that he is able to constantly push his liberalism onto unsuspecting seniors that have watched channel 4 since its inception and still don't realize cable exists. (By the way, Fox News had higher ratings than MSNBC and CNN combined on election night.) In his show after the elections, he actually suggested that the Republicans forced Obama to the left. See if you can watch this without laughing. I couldn't. The text is below. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjbjJ2qZCAw

The Republican strategy of the past two years has been to force Obama over to the left so that he could only pass left-wing legislation or center-left legislation without the grace of a bipartisan support. They won. They made him into a lefty. That's what they wanted to do. How do you teach them that they better not do that again? How do you make Republicans as an institution, not as voters, but as an institution, to say you cannot win by screwing the other side and making it into the worst cartoon of itself?

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? The thing is, he isn't. He is serious and almost as delusional as the President. The President's policies were to blame, but only because the Republicans forced him to the left and made his legislation more liberal than the country could handle? Maybe someone should tell Chris that they were in control of both houses and capable of proposing and passing basically anything they wanted for the past two years. If the legislation had been anything but far left, Olympia Snowe and her sort would've considered jumping on board. That was not the plan. Compromise was never considered. They pushed it through the House and refused to let the Senate fix it, in a bipartisan way. They deserve what they got on Tuesday and no one is to blame but themselves.

What a buffoon. He will eventually go as far as Dan Rather in his political zealousness and be shown the door. I predict it will happen in 2012 as he desperately attempts to get Obama re-elected to ensure at least an intermittent furrowing, thrill and maybe even a tingle.

Update:  It appears Keith Olberman beat Matthews to Dan Rather's fate. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021940-503544.html

83% Think House Will Repeal Obamacare

A new poll shows that voters believe the 2011 Republican-controlled House of Representatives will vote to repeal the unpopular national health care law. Specifically, 83% of likely voters think it is at least somewhat likely that the House will vote to repeal it while 12% say a vote to repeal is not very or not at all likely. The same poll found that 59% of those who voted favor the House to repeal it. I hope the people prevail and force Obama to stop insulting us by insisting it was a necessary, emergency measure and not his pet project.  http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/252576/krauthammers-take-nro-staff

Health Care Vote Sinks Most Dems

So, I may have been right on the money with my House prediction of 65 when the races become finalized, but I was off in the Senate by at least three. All in all, it was still a very good night as most of the Democrats I care for the least were sent packing.

President Obama can say last night was all about the economy if he chooses, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/11/03/obama-addresses-nation-democrats-lose-house/ and it very well might have been to a very limited degree. However, the fact is, we all know the voting came down to the health care bill as those who supported it, were largely defeated.  Here is a list:

Tom Perriello (VA)

Glenn Nye (VA)

Suzanne Kosmas (FL)

Alan Grayson (FL)

Baron Hill (IN)

Carol Shea-Porter (NH) 

Allen Boyd (FL) 

Kathy Dahlkemper (PA)

Chris Carney (PA)

Paul Kanjorski (PA)

Blanche Lincoln (AR)

Ron Klein (FL)

Debbie Halvorson (IL)
Phil Hare (IL)
Mark Schauer (MI)
Jim Oberstar (MN)
Dina Titus (NV)
John Hall (NY)
Bob Etheridge (NC)
Mary Jo Kilroy (OH)
Zack Space (OH)
Patrick Murphy (PA)
John Spratt (SC)
Steve Kagen (WI)
Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1)
Harry Mitchell (AZ)
John Salazar (CO)
Bill Foster (IL)
Earl Pomeroy (ND)
Charlie Wilson (OH)
Ciro Rodriguez (TX)

Even a single Republican, Joseph Cao (LA), lost as a result of voting "yes" on the bill in November even though he changed his vote when the bill returned in March.

Dems Hunker Down

The most 'open, honest, ethical congress in history' has been a failure on all three fronts. It's ironic that the Democratic majority that came in with such a bang four years ago is going out with a whimper behind closed doors.

Let's hope they stay behind closed doors so the GOP can unwind their big government socialistic healthcare debacle.

The Ones to Watch According to Poll Closings

Poll Closings in Eastern Daylight Time:

7:00 pm:

Indiana

Kentucky

South Carolina

Georgia
Mississippi

Virginia

Vermont

7:30 pm:

Ohio
North Carolina

West Virginia

8:00 pm:

Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia

Florida 

Illinois
Kansas
Maine

Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma

Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee

8:30 pm:

Arkansas

9:00 pm:

Arizona

California
Colorado
Louisiana
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico

New York

Oregon
South Dakota

Washington
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Texas

10:00 pm:

Hawaii
Idaho
Iowa

Nevada

North Dakota

1:00 am: 

Alaska

65% Would Vote to Scrap Congress

On the heels of a major midterm election, a new Rasmussen national survey finds that 65% of likely voters say if they had the option on election day, they would get rid of every member of Congress and start with a clean slate. Unsurprisingly, among those voting, 84% of mainstream voters would opt to get rid of them and 64% of the political class (read: liberal elitists) would vote to keep them all.

Among the "dump 'em" sect were 82% Republicans and 78% of unaffiliated voters. Democrats are almost evenly divided as 44% want to keep them and 38% prefer to kick them out. 

Despite Democratic loyalty to incumbents, only 12% of all voters think Congress is doing a good job. This begs the question of why the majority of 44% of Democrats think Congress is doing a poor job, but want to keep them in their seats. 

Despite Democratic schizophrenia, 62% feel it would be better for the country if most congressional incumbents were defeated next week. I agree with this contingency, but I have to admit, I want to start with the Democratic incumbents. Maybe after that, we can force the issue of term limits and get rid of these lifetime, do-nothing, entitled congresspeople once and for all.

Enthusiasm Gap Holds True: Republicans Leading Democrats in Nevada Voting

Republican voters continue to show up in Nevada in higher numbers than the Democrats to cast their votes in early voting. In fact, they have increased their turnout lead in the largest counties in Nevada, Clark and Washoe, to almost 4%.

Total Clark and Washoe County early vote plus the mail-ins in Clark (mail-in numbers not available in Washoe):

•Democrats: 113,193 (26.8%)

•Republicans: 100,702 (30.4%)

Angle Tastefully Responds to Behar

Joy Behar is a hack with no political intelligence and I usually wouldn't waste my time writing about her, but I just love this. Apparently, Sharron Angle sent Behar flowers in response to her comments that she is "going to hell" for her stance on illegal immigration. The card attached thanked Behar for "helping her raise $150,000 online yesterday."

Of course, the crass Behar responded that “those flowers were picked by illegal immigrants" and of course, she added, "they’re not voting for you, bitch.” As the writer pointed out, they're actually not supposed to be voting at all. And for that matter, neither is anyone from the Bronx, the place Behar told Angle to "bring her ad" and "see what happens."

When you listen to the dialogue, who do you think best characterizes the word "bitch?"

The Spirit of Self Approval

I usually don't read the New York Times, for obvious reasons, but every once in a while, it contains a beautifully crafted essay that isn't laced with farcical facts and left wing political jabs. The article linked to my title is certainly a great example of this. Of course, in it, Brooks makes fun of the collective psychoses of the Democratic party, which could have something to do with my appreciation for it. Who is to say?

Seriously, he tells us we, too, can "love ourselves, even in trying circumstances" by abiding by three lessons the Democrats have held dear this year. First, do not dwell on negative facts, polls, or circumstances. "Over the past year, many Democrats have resolutely paid attention to those things that make them feel good, and they have carefully filtered out those negative things that make them feel sad." For instance, they continuously discuss Christine O’Donnell and Carl Paladino rather than Rob Portman, Dan Coats, John Boozman and Roy Blunt, who are likely to actually win their races. Why? "It doesn’t feel good when your opponents are experienced people who simply have different points of view." 

Similarly, the Dems have picked fights with the Tea Party movement, rather than speaking to the "independent moderates who supported President Obama in 2008 but flocked away during the health care summer of 2009 and now support the GOP by landslide proportions." Why? "Losing friends makes you sad. It is better to not think about why these things happen."

Second, do not forget that "many great geniuses were unappreciated in their lifetimes." As President Obama admitted on the campaign trail, Americans are too stupid to appreciate "the grandeur of their accomplishments." They are moving to the right in the polls because they are scared and not because they are pissed and unhappy with his policies. 

Third, "You are the hero of your own children’s adventure story." Never admit reality. It simply isn't true that "parties that promote unpopular policies tend to get punished at election time." Instead, in your story, you are the caped crusader fighting evil and you must push on no matter the cost (even if it means losing scores of congressional seats). 

If you follow these rules, you can't lose, except at the polls.

"Better the Devil You Know"

Mississippi Democratic House Representative Gene Taylor told a newspaper he did not vote for President Obama in 2008 and instead voted for John McCain. Specifically, he said, “I did not vote for Obama. I voted for McCain. Better the devil you know.”

Whether it's true or fiction, it shows the lengths Democrats will go to to distance themselves from the President. Better yet, it shows the lengths these egomaniacs will go to to keep their seats. Taylor's district voted for McCain to the tune of 67% in 2008, and Taylor’s battle with Republican Steve Palazzo is neck and neck. I hope his constituents don't go with the devil they know, as he appears to be a big, fat phony.

Fiorina Closes in on Boxer

Carly Fiorina is closing in on Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer in a race that has remained a virtual tie for several weeks. With less than two weeks to go until election day, Boxer must be exceedingly nervous that Fiorina has inched one percentage closer to taking her senate seat. The latest Rasmussen telephone survey of likely voters shows Boxer getting 48% while Fiorina gets 46%, 3% prefer some other candidate and another 3% are undecided. 

Of course, as this race inches closer, so does the one in Pennsylvania, to the dismay of the GOP. Toomey, who held a ten-point lead, now only has 4% on Sestak. However, I still think Toomey will take it.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate

Are Chicagoans are Fed Up?

Republican Mark Kirk now leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias in the race for the Illinois senate seat vacated by the president. The latest Rasmussen survey of likely voters shows Kirk grabbing 44% to Giannoulias's 40%. Surprisingly, Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones earns 4% and still 8% prefer some other candidate while 5% are undecided. The new poll represents a decline of 4% for Giannoulias.

Assuming Jones actually picks up his 4%, which he has held in every poll to date, and the "other candidate" votes are actually cast as such, there is only 5% of the electorate left to fight over. If this polling holds true, Kirk will either win by a larger threshold than expected or lose narrowly. 

Most Coveted Potential House Wins

Yesterday, when making my predictions for the House, I placed exclamation points next to the races that will afford me the most satisfaction when the Republican challengers make their victory speeches. Here's why:

FL-08

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28786.html

FL-22 

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/allen-west-house-ron/2010/10/19/id/374219

NC-02 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoCRGlrFABk&feature=related

House Predictions: GOP Will Take 65 Seats

I predict the GOP will take the following seats in the House from the Democrats:

AL-05

AR-01

AR-02

AZ-01

AZ-03

AZ-05

CA-03

CA-20

CA-44

CA-45

CO-03

CO-04

FL-02

FL-08!! 

FL-12

FL-22!!

FL-24

FL-25

HI-01

IL-11

IN-08

IN-09

KS-03

LA-03

MD-01

MI-01

MI-03

MN-06

MO-04

MS-01

NC-02!!

NC-08

ND-AL

NE-02

NH-01

NH-02

NM-02

NV-03

NY-24

NY-29

OH-01

OH-06

OH-12

OH-15

OH-16

OH-18

PA-03

PA-06

PA-07

PA-08

PA-11

PA-15

SC-05

SD-AL

TN-06

TN-08

TX-17

TX-23

VA-02

VA-05

WA-03

WA-08

WI-07

WI-08

WV-01

Barney Fwank's Boyfriend a Wittle Upset

Are the Democrats just really petty people? We've seen the lascivious false ads hurled by Rand Paul's opponent, but now we're seeing actual playground antics. James Ready, Barney Frank's boyfriend, is obviously trying to intimidate his opponent, Sean Bielat, in front of the press and when Bielat calls him out, he basically says, "You started it," which, is entirely false as well as pathetic. 

Blumenthal's Lead Dwindles

Dick Blumenthal's lead has now dwindled to five points over Republican Linda McMahon in a poll conducted after their third and final debate. Blumenthal grabbed 51% of the vote to McMahon's 46% while 1% prefer someone else and 3% are undecided. This poll is surprising considering that just a week ago, Blumenthal had a lead of 11 points over McMahon.

Perhaps the lead is due to more negative press regarding his prosecutorial record. Regardless, while the  news is encouraging, McMahon still has an uphill battle. We're rooting for her all the way as a win in CT would relieve the pressure to take IL and WV to win the Senate.  

Cry Baby Murkowski Now Tied with Miller

A new Rasmussen poll of likely voters shows Republican Joe Miller with 35% to write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski's 34%. Only 1% prefers another candidate and 3% are undecided, which means that Murkowski only needs to pull the undecideds in to beat primary winner Miller. A month after the entitled brat decided to write herself back into a race she lost fair and square, Miller earned 42% support to her 27%. 

What accounts for the 7% increase in popularity? If she pulls this off, I will be shocked. What a sore loser.  

Dem's Attacks Energize People to Donate

As I suggested in earlier entries, the unfounded attacks levied by a desperate Democratic party against conservatives only served to further fire up the Republican base. When I said it, I meant that I believed it would generate more votes, but apparently, it's also translating into major donations to conservative groups and GOP campaigns.

The American Crossroads group, which has ties to Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie, has raised over $13 million since being attacked by the White House for allegedly using foreign money. The baseless attacks have only led to a rain of contributions, which allowed the group to escalate it's fundraising goals. They now say they will be able to spend an additional $10 million in House races, and $5 million more in Senate races.

Similarly, two Tea Party candidates who have weathered an onslaught of Democratic attacks have received historical amounts of campaign contributions for their November races. Yesterday, Sharron Angle reported that she received $14M since entering the race in July. Another favorite whipping post, Michelle Bachmann, has raised $5.4M in the past quarter for her reelection bid for the House in Minnesota.

All this good news makes me hopeful that the Democrats unleash Alan Grayson on all the GOP candidates in the next month.    

The White House Acts Desperately in an Attempt to Smear the GOP Before November

Watching the polls turn against your candidates in the most liberal states must be upsetting.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/election_2010_wisconsin_senate

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/nevada/election_2010_nevada_senate

Viewing commercials where your party's candidates run against you and your policies must also be difficult. 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1010/Dem_congressmans_ad_brags_He_voted_with_the_Republican_leader_63_of_the_time.html?showall

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/10/11/5271641-manchin-takes-aim-at-cap-and-trade-

Given all this, I understand the need to want to lash out against someone, but hurling completely baseless accusations against the opponent party? Really? Just Sunday on live television David Axelrod accused Karl Rove and the Chamber of Commerce of allowing foreign money to fund American campaigns. When the program's host asked him for proof that the money was anything more than de minimis, Axelrod said, “Do you have any evidence that it’s NOT? The fact is that the Chamber [of Commerce] has asserted that, but they won’t release any information about where their campaign money is coming from.” Rightly, the host shut down the line of questioning.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/politicolive/1010/Axelrod_continues_assault_on_GOP_spending.html

One day later, Joe "Genius" Biden claimed that if the Republicans gain control of Congress, they will challenge the constitutionality of social security, a program that has been in existence for decades, just like health care reform, a program that has not yet come to fruition. His basis? He claimed they were similar because they required that all taxpayers participate.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/123727-biden-gop-could-challenge-social-security-in-court 

It's all so silly. I'm just glad they're hurling pointless accusations and we haven't been stupid enough to give them any red meat or real scandals this go round.

Boehner Says GOP Finally Gets It

When stumping for Republican House hopeful Allen West in Florida today, House Minority Whip John Boehner told the audience that Republicans will do an about face if allowed to govern Washington in 2011 with a majority in Congress. He said the party finally understands that they spent too much money and grew government under Bush and would not repeat past mistakes. To prove his point, Boehner says he will propose a spending cut every week he is speaker. 

Boehner's comments gel with the recent "Pledge to America" the party rolled out last month. "In the pledge, Republicans propose cutting spending by repealing the Democrats' healthcare law, instituting budget caps, reforming government-controlled housing lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, cutting non-discretionary spending to 2008 levels and canceling future TARP payments."

West, a newcomer and fiery addition to the GOP who spoke after Boehner, stated that he would "hold [Boehner's] feet to the fire" on his pledge to cut spending. He believes the GOP doesn't need gimmicks and paper promises to do what is absolutely necessary for the country's survival and he has no problem saying it. I love his straight-forward, take no prisoners approach and hope that he beats his opponent Klein, in November. We need more like him.  

Dem's Election Tampering

Apparently there have been accusations that Democratic operatives have backed faux tea party candidates in an effort to pull votes away from Republican challengers. Now it seems they finally have proof of the election scam in New Jersey’s Third Congressional race. A local paper reported that Democratic Congressman John Adler's staff, with the help of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, hatched a plan to steal votes from Republican, and former Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman, Jon Runyan.

All they had to do to get a random Mount Laurel woman on the ballot as the “New Jersey tea party” candidate, was to collect 100 votes. With another conservative on the ballot in a tight race, the Dems hoped to confuse voters and lessen Runyan’s support to try to hold onto the seat.      

I hope they expose these pathetic schemes in every district and the press continues to report them since all it will do is fire up already overly enthusiastic GOP voters.

Angle Now Ahead by Four

Republican Sharron Angle is now leading Harry Reid by four points in Nevada's senate race. More importantly, the Rasmussen poll has her finally over the 50% mark, while Reid has 46% of the vote. Two percent prefer some other candidate and 2% are undecided. 

Just a week ago, Angle was besting Reid for the first time since polling began, but only by a point. Before that, the race was tied. This is the widest margin of separation between the pair since Angle stepped into the race. 

The poll has a 95% level of confidence, which means Reid will probably step up his attack ads, but what more can he say this late in the game? I hope he doesn't have an ace in the hole. If not, Angle will win this race. 

More Bad Economic News for the Dems

Jobs slipped again in September to levels that were even worse than expected. Private employers cut 39,000 jobs after a gain of 10,000 in August. Analysts expected the private sector to only cut 24,000 jobs, but they were once again wrong.

This could not be welcomed news for Democrats, who are hoping for anything to stop the bleeding during this campaign season in which the pollsters are predicting a donkey thrashing. 

President Christie?

Why is Chris Christie teasing us? He insists he will not run for president in 2012, but he keeps making fantastic speeches in battleground states like Iowa. Last night in front of conservative activists he touted his success in deep blue NJ and advocated his brand of conservatism in Washington. He said that his "tough-talking, smaller government message resonates with all voters" and should be adopted by all the Republican winners in November, especially since his approval rating has jumped ten points since he took office. 

He also urged Republicans to "deliver on their conservative promises if they gain power" because if they don't, the people will banish Republicans "to the wilderness...for a long, long time." He suggested that voters will accept tough cuts in programs and a tightening of the purse strings of government spending "as long as they know the pain is being spread equally." 

He continued, "We lost our way a number of years ago, and we became tax and spend light. "Less spending, smaller government, less regulation, smaller government — we're going to be all about that again. We have to step up and stand for those principles again."

Obviously, as a northern Republican, Christie argues that the GOP should focus on fiscal conservatism, rather than social issues. And right now, he's particularly right. However, I can see Christie at the top of the ticket with a more socially conservative running mate like Pawlenti on the ticket in 2012. I know he insists he won't, but a girl can dream.

Sore Losers

Doesn't everyone hate sore losers? Why do politicians think they are exempt from this time-honored rule? Gore made a spectacle of himself in 2000 refusing to accept defeat. He transformed his entire party into sour puss losers by example by constantly insinuating that he would have won if the GOP wouldn't have cheated.

It's been a while, but now that we have another anti-establishment election year, we have more babies losing elections and crying about it. First we had Mikulski in Alaska, and now we have Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian in Nevada. Apparently, this guy, like Mikulski, cares a lot more about himself than his party's ideals. Like Mikulski, he decided to wite himself onto the ballot, but he went further. Apparently, he secretly recorded and leaked a conversation with Republican senate candidate Sharron Angle wherein she asks him to step aside.

Besides being selfish, this tape recording was boneheaded. Who cares if Angle asked him to step aside?  Who wouldn't do the same in her shoes? If Angle loses, it won't be due to Ashjian, but it sure doesn't do much for the cause.

Rossi Now Beating Gubment Lifer Pat Murray

Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray is now a point behind her Republican challenger, Dino Rossi, in Washington state’s race for the Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll has Rossi picking up 48%, while Murray gets 47% of the vote, 2% prefer some other candidate and 3% are undecided. 

Just two weeks ago, Murray held a 51% to 46% lead and prior to this, the candidates were within two points of each other. These more distant polls gave the impression that Murray would handily win, but now that supposition has proven very tenuous. And if Ann Coulter's piece http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=39211 were required reading, Rossi would push past 50% quite easily. Apparently, she's said quite boneheaded things in the past.  For instance, after 9/11, Murray said this about Osama bin Laden:

He's been out in these countries for decades, building schools, building roads, building infrastructure, building day-care facilities, building health-care facilities, and the people are extremely grateful. He's made their lives better.

Whah?  I hope we hear more from her in the next month.

First Reid, now Frank?

Is it possible that the voters of Massachusetts will dethrone the entrenched, 14-term Representative Barney Frank in November? Some say there is now at least a scintilla of hope in Sean Bielat, the Republican candidate for Congress in Massachusetts' 4th District. Bielat is 35 years old, articulate and well accomplished. He is a Marine by training and is now a major in the Reserves, but he is no typical jarhead. He graduated from Georgetown, went to Harvard for a masters and Wharton for his MBA. The majority of his career, he has been an aficionado in manufacturing the high-tech robots that defuse improvised explosive devices in Iraq and Afghanistan. He even looks a little like the main character in Hurt Locker.

But, enough about his resume. Could he beat this guy in a deep blue suburn of Boston? Well, one poll has him trailing Frank by just 10 points despite the fact that only 43% of the participants know who he is. That's a good start. What's even more heartening is that he understands how bad Frank has been for the country.

"Ask Bielat to name the three worst things Frank has done in office and you get an idea of what his focus would be, if elected. 'You've got to start with Freddie and Fannie and his unending push to expand home ownership,' Bielat says. 'He definitely played an enormous role in getting us where we are today in terms of the real estate bubble and the ensuing financial collapse.'

Right on, kid.

"Number two? 'Financial reform, because it doesn't address Fannie and Freddie and vastly expands oversight of the financial services sector.'

Yep.

"Three? 'His view on what government should and should not do.' Simply put, Frank wants an always-expanding federal government, and Bielat doesn't."

I think the Tea Party could even get onboard with him on that. Bielat is concerned with the expansion of programs and the entitlement spending that comes with it, which is something that is vitally important to deficit reduction, but most politicians avoid like the plague.

I like him.  I don't give him great odds, but then, there is the Scott Brown thing.

House Lamely Votes to Adjourn and Skips Vote on Taxes

To further cement the fact that Obama and Pelosi are no longer in the driver's seat, many House Democrats voted not to adjourn today and Pelosi barely won the adjournment motion by a 210-209 vote. The 39 Democrats voting against adjournment did so after Minority Leader John Boehner urged them to stay and force a vote to extend the Bush tax cuts. Boehner said that those voting to adjourn would be "putting their election above the needs of [their] constituents."

Not surprisingly, the 39 who voted "no" are involved in heated races across the country and have joined Republicans in arguing for extending all of the tax cuts, in opposition to the President. They were Jason Altmire (PA), Gerry Connolly (VA), Travis Childers (MS), Joe Donnelly (IN), Steve Driehaus (OH), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD), Frank Kratovil (MD), Walt Minnick (ID) Tom Perriello (VA), John Adler (NJ), Michael Arcuri (NY), Melissa Bean (IL), Tim Bishop (NY), Bobby Bright (AL), Chris Carney (PA), Chet Edwards (TX), Bill Foster (IL), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ), Martin Heinrich (NM), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ), Betsy Markey (CO), Jim Marshall (GA), Mike McIntyre (NC), Mike McMahon (NY), Jerry McNerney (CA), Mike Michaud (ME), Harry Mitchell (AZ), Patrick Murphy (PA), Glenn Nye (VA), Gary Peters (MI), Mark Schauer (MI), Heath Shuler (NC), Zack Space (OH), Gene Taylor (MS) and Dina Titus (NV). Three House Democrats who are running for Senate, Brad Ellsworth (IN), Charlie Melancon (LA) and Joe Sestak (PA) also voted against adjournment.

Look for all of these people to lose come November.  It's too late, fellas.

The Last Ditch Effort of House Dems

Because Pelosi knew she didn't have the numbers, she pushed off a vote on the expiring Bush tax cuts until after the November elections. However, she couldn't prevent some of her Democratic House members from voicing their opposition to the President's plan to extend only some of the tax savings. A group of 47 House Democrats sent her a letter today, detailing their wish to continue all of the Bush-era tax cuts and "breaking ranks" with Obama and Pelosi, as they failed to do during the health care debate. 

The letter addressed Pelosi and urged her to maintain current tax levels as, "Raising taxes...could discourage individuals and businesses from saving and investing." The letter was signed by several vulnerable freshman hoping to keep their seats in the fall. 

I hate to break it to the 47, but no amount of letter writing can undo the health care and stimulus legislation they helped enact. When they go to the polls, voters will not forget that they traded favors for votes on critically important legislation that the country did not want.

McMahon Within 5 of Blumenthal

Republican candidate Linda McMahon is now the closest in the polls she has been to beating Democrat Richard Blumenthal, who now holds only a five-point lead in Connecticut’s race for the Senate seat. The survey pegs  Blumenthal with 50% to McMahon's 45% while 4% are undecided. This is the closest the race has been since the New York Times revealed that Blumenthal lied about his service in Vietnam, which  never occurred.  

Obama Approval Tanking

Yesterday we discovered that the President failed to sell out a crowd at the Roosevelt Hotel in New York City despite calls and pleas for supporters to pay $100 per ticket to see him speak for a half hour. Apparently, he can no longer sell out a crowd, even at bargain basement prices.

Today, we have concrete proof of the severity of his unpopularity. A new CNN poll confirmed that he is tanking. In fact, Obama has fallen 8 points in three weeks, and now has a 42% approval rating. And this was a CNN poll. The real number is likely even lower.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/24/cnn-poll-obama-at-all-time-low/

This news comes at a time when the GOP is already motivated to get to the polls in November. Each day brings better numbers and news for conservatives, which further validates their cause and heightens their enthusiasm. In fact, apparently, Obama's approval rating is now the same as President Clinton’s in 1994 before the midterm elections that saw Republicans gain control of both the House and Senate. As I predicted several  months ago, this election year we will see the same phenomenon, and in states that are tried and true blue.

Fiesty New York Italians

Yesterday I was shocked to hear that Paladino was within 6 of Cuomo and today I am even more stunned and excited to learn that DioGuardi is within 6 of Gillibrand! This midterm election is going to be one to remember.

President O'Carter?

After it became clear that Obama would best Clinton in the primary, my dad said, "This is a disaster. He will be just like Carter. No one will admit they voted for him." It seems he was right, and now, even his supporters are comparing his political impotency to the former president's during his term. As the article explains, liberal journalists are all but admitting they made a major mistake in picking the chosen one. The unbearable part is, we all have to live with their mistake and not only have to listen to his drone-like speeches, but have to work hard to beat back his disastrous economic and social legislation. 

More Populist Rhetoric from Obama

Democrats are rightfully bewildered and don't know how to use Obama this fall, but maybe they should just tell him to hide and quit making them look so desperate. On his website, Obama is claiming that Republicans are holding the middle class tax cuts "hostage,” because the GOP wants a bill that would extend all of the tax cuts made by President Bush. And what else? He's claiming that the GOP refusal to extend only some of Bush's tax cuts will force him to borrow another $700 billion "to provide an average tax cut of $100,000 to millionaires and billionaires." His populist rhetoric and threats are insulting. Does he really think the American people believe if he does not collect more in taxes from those earning over $200,000, that the country will be propelled to borrow money to close that gap? No amount of ridiculous rhetoric will overshadow our disgust with his "one-party government" that has and will continue to seek more tax increases to support any liberal policy he dreams up, all the while having no concern for an “unsustainable level of deficits its own spending has produced."

Nevada's 14.4% Unemployment Will Push Angle to Win

Nevada's unemployment rate is now the highest in the country, at 14.4%, as 3,000 jobs were cut in the public sector in August. That figure is up from 14.3% this summer, when the state claimed the highest jobless rate in the nation, besting Michigan.  

Nevada's most populous county by far, Clark, has a rate of unemployment of 14.7%, down from its record of 14.8% in August. Why is this important? Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, decides statewide elections in Nevada. Las Vegas has a lot of unionized workers that vote with their unions, universally, for Democrats. Job losses there have led many unionized, younger workers, who would tend to vote for Reid, to move out of the county, and even the state. This protracted, extreme unemployment coupled with the anti-incumbent mood, will propel Angle to victory.

Senate Predictions

2010 Senate Election Predictions:

Alabama:  Shelby will be in Alabama as long as there is air in his lungs. Even with the country's distrust for incumbents, Alabamans still love the man, to the tune of 60%. His challenger, Barnes, only gets 28% of the vote.  SAFE R

Alaska:  Miller is at 50% and wins.  SAFE R

Arkansas:   Boozman is guaranteed to win versus Lincoln who only gets 25% to his 65% of the vote.  SAFE R

Arizona:  McCain is a guaranteed winner over Glassman (who?) after beating his Tea Party primary challenger, but McCain only grabs 51% of the vote to Glassman's 37%, which demonstrates how strong the anti-incumbent sentiment has become.  Even beloved war heroes are close to the chopping block.  SAFE R

California:  The annoyingly blue state is a true toss up, but the polls finally have Fiorina ahead of Boxer. The state is in terrible financial shape and the people didn't get the change they were looking for in Ahnold after Gray Davis was thrown out. It appears as if Whitman may win the governorship seems tough enough to be Christie-like when it comes to dealing with the legislature. Fiorina will ride her coattails victory.  LEANS R 

Colorado:  Buck is only leading Bennet by 4 points, but Colorado is a male-dominated, fairly conservative state. SAFE R

Connecticut: McMahon is still down by 8 points to Blumenthal, which will be hard to overcome at this stage of the game as she has been campaigning a while. Of course, if the GOP gets a lot of people to the polls, this could be an interesting race.  Pray for rain.  LIKELY D

Delaware:  O'Donnell just pulled off her Tea Party victory, and although she is not a very attractive candidate for a myriad of reasons, I think she could potentially come closer than some think if she follows in Rubio's footsteps. After all, she is currently only polling 9 points behind Coons. She will make up ground just like Angle in the weeks ahead. Still, it may not be enough. LIKELY D

Florida: Meeks will not step aside. Rubio, ahead of Crist by a 41 to 30 margin, wins, hands down. SAFE R

Georgia:  Isakson, like his southern counterpart, Shelby, is a favorite son. He is leading 55% to Thurmond's 41% and will seal the deal.  SAFE R

Hawaii:  Inouye has almost 70%.  SAFE D

Idaho:  Crapo (wow, what a terrible name) leads Sullivan 63 to 24%.  It's over.  SAFE R

Illinois:  This race is a true toss up, but it is within 2% while "some other candidate" or "other" gets 6%, so if most of those votes go red, as I suspect, Kirk wins.  LIKELY R

Indiana:  Why do some put this in the toss up category? The Hoosier state is going red as there is a 16 point spread between Coats and Ellsworth.  Come on.  SAFE R

Iowa:  Grassley has 20% on Conlin.  SAFE R

Kansas:  Moran, who is leading by a 61 to 28, will not lose.  SAFE R

Kentucky:  Paul has it be 15 points.  This is not a toss up.  SAFE R

Louisiana:  Despite his troubles, Vitter leads Melancon 54 to 33% and will remain intact.  SAFE R

Maryland:  To my earlier point, Mikulski has a 16 point advantage over Wargotz, but no one calls it a toss up like Indiana. Everyone calls crab land safely Democratic, which it is.  SAFE D

Missouri:  Blunt has 10 over Carnahan.  It is less of a toss up and more likely R as it is a conservative midwestern town.  LIKELY R

Nevada:  Angle is in a dead heat with Reid and she was said to be O'Donnell-like at the start. LIKELY R

New Hampshire:  The Republicans will take the live free or die state with Ayotte ahead 51 to Hodes' 44%.  SAFE R

New York:  My state has been hopelessly blue since Pataki left, but this time, only because no one challenged the unpopular Gillibrand and because Schumer will be here forever.  Ugh.  SAFE D

North Carolina:  Burr's 54% will be enough to put Marshall away.  It's not likely GOP.  SAFE R 

North Dakota:  Hoeven is winning by 45%.  It's over.  SAFE R

Ohio:  Portman is ahead of Fisher by 8.  SAFE R

Oklahoma:  Coburn has over 40% on Rogers in the Texas-like state.  SAFE R

Oregon:  Wyden is up 18 points.  SAFE D

Pennsylvania:  Philly will not drag this state blue this time!  Toomey is up by 8 to Sestak.  SAFE R

South Carolina:  DeMint 63% to Greene's 19%.  How did he get 19% of the vote?  SAFE R

South Dakota:  Johnson, the incumbent, is not suffering from the anti-incumbent mood.  SAFE D 

Utah:  Lee has 54% and will win.  SAFE R

Vermont:  Leahy with 63% is impenetrable.  SAFE D

Wisconsin:  They have made their mistakes, but Feingold is losing by 7 points! SAFE R 

Washington: Rossi is down by 5% and only 3% report that they are unsure of their vote. It seems like that state might be gone.  SAFE D

West Virginia:  This race is closer than both CT and WA and is really a conservative state that has been held hostage by the Byrd Dixiecrats for decades. Raese is within 5 and could do it.  LIKELY R