Senate Predictions

2010 Senate Election Predictions:

Alabama:  Shelby will be in Alabama as long as there is air in his lungs. Even with the country's distrust for incumbents, Alabamans still love the man, to the tune of 60%. His challenger, Barnes, only gets 28% of the vote.  SAFE R

Alaska:  Miller is at 50% and wins.  SAFE R

Arkansas:   Boozman is guaranteed to win versus Lincoln who only gets 25% to his 65% of the vote.  SAFE R

Arizona:  McCain is a guaranteed winner over Glassman (who?) after beating his Tea Party primary challenger, but McCain only grabs 51% of the vote to Glassman's 37%, which demonstrates how strong the anti-incumbent sentiment has become.  Even beloved war heroes are close to the chopping block.  SAFE R

California:  The annoyingly blue state is a true toss up, but the polls finally have Fiorina ahead of Boxer. The state is in terrible financial shape and the people didn't get the change they were looking for in Ahnold after Gray Davis was thrown out. It appears as if Whitman may win the governorship seems tough enough to be Christie-like when it comes to dealing with the legislature. Fiorina will ride her coattails victory.  LEANS R 

Colorado:  Buck is only leading Bennet by 4 points, but Colorado is a male-dominated, fairly conservative state. SAFE R

Connecticut: McMahon is still down by 8 points to Blumenthal, which will be hard to overcome at this stage of the game as she has been campaigning a while. Of course, if the GOP gets a lot of people to the polls, this could be an interesting race.  Pray for rain.  LIKELY D

Delaware:  O'Donnell just pulled off her Tea Party victory, and although she is not a very attractive candidate for a myriad of reasons, I think she could potentially come closer than some think if she follows in Rubio's footsteps. After all, she is currently only polling 9 points behind Coons. She will make up ground just like Angle in the weeks ahead. Still, it may not be enough. LIKELY D

Florida: Meeks will not step aside. Rubio, ahead of Crist by a 41 to 30 margin, wins, hands down. SAFE R

Georgia:  Isakson, like his southern counterpart, Shelby, is a favorite son. He is leading 55% to Thurmond's 41% and will seal the deal.  SAFE R

Hawaii:  Inouye has almost 70%.  SAFE D

Idaho:  Crapo (wow, what a terrible name) leads Sullivan 63 to 24%.  It's over.  SAFE R

Illinois:  This race is a true toss up, but it is within 2% while "some other candidate" or "other" gets 6%, so if most of those votes go red, as I suspect, Kirk wins.  LIKELY R

Indiana:  Why do some put this in the toss up category? The Hoosier state is going red as there is a 16 point spread between Coats and Ellsworth.  Come on.  SAFE R

Iowa:  Grassley has 20% on Conlin.  SAFE R

Kansas:  Moran, who is leading by a 61 to 28, will not lose.  SAFE R

Kentucky:  Paul has it be 15 points.  This is not a toss up.  SAFE R

Louisiana:  Despite his troubles, Vitter leads Melancon 54 to 33% and will remain intact.  SAFE R

Maryland:  To my earlier point, Mikulski has a 16 point advantage over Wargotz, but no one calls it a toss up like Indiana. Everyone calls crab land safely Democratic, which it is.  SAFE D

Missouri:  Blunt has 10 over Carnahan.  It is less of a toss up and more likely R as it is a conservative midwestern town.  LIKELY R

Nevada:  Angle is in a dead heat with Reid and she was said to be O'Donnell-like at the start. LIKELY R

New Hampshire:  The Republicans will take the live free or die state with Ayotte ahead 51 to Hodes' 44%.  SAFE R

New York:  My state has been hopelessly blue since Pataki left, but this time, only because no one challenged the unpopular Gillibrand and because Schumer will be here forever.  Ugh.  SAFE D

North Carolina:  Burr's 54% will be enough to put Marshall away.  It's not likely GOP.  SAFE R 

North Dakota:  Hoeven is winning by 45%.  It's over.  SAFE R

Ohio:  Portman is ahead of Fisher by 8.  SAFE R

Oklahoma:  Coburn has over 40% on Rogers in the Texas-like state.  SAFE R

Oregon:  Wyden is up 18 points.  SAFE D

Pennsylvania:  Philly will not drag this state blue this time!  Toomey is up by 8 to Sestak.  SAFE R

South Carolina:  DeMint 63% to Greene's 19%.  How did he get 19% of the vote?  SAFE R

South Dakota:  Johnson, the incumbent, is not suffering from the anti-incumbent mood.  SAFE D 

Utah:  Lee has 54% and will win.  SAFE R

Vermont:  Leahy with 63% is impenetrable.  SAFE D

Wisconsin:  They have made their mistakes, but Feingold is losing by 7 points! SAFE R 

Washington: Rossi is down by 5% and only 3% report that they are unsure of their vote. It seems like that state might be gone.  SAFE D

West Virginia:  This race is closer than both CT and WA and is really a conservative state that has been held hostage by the Byrd Dixiecrats for decades. Raese is within 5 and could do it.  LIKELY R