First Reid, now Frank?

Is it possible that the voters of Massachusetts will dethrone the entrenched, 14-term Representative Barney Frank in November? Some say there is now at least a scintilla of hope in Sean Bielat, the Republican candidate for Congress in Massachusetts' 4th District. Bielat is 35 years old, articulate and well accomplished. He is a Marine by training and is now a major in the Reserves, but he is no typical jarhead. He graduated from Georgetown, went to Harvard for a masters and Wharton for his MBA. The majority of his career, he has been an aficionado in manufacturing the high-tech robots that defuse improvised explosive devices in Iraq and Afghanistan. He even looks a little like the main character in Hurt Locker.

But, enough about his resume. Could he beat this guy in a deep blue suburn of Boston? Well, one poll has him trailing Frank by just 10 points despite the fact that only 43% of the participants know who he is. That's a good start. What's even more heartening is that he understands how bad Frank has been for the country.

"Ask Bielat to name the three worst things Frank has done in office and you get an idea of what his focus would be, if elected. 'You've got to start with Freddie and Fannie and his unending push to expand home ownership,' Bielat says. 'He definitely played an enormous role in getting us where we are today in terms of the real estate bubble and the ensuing financial collapse.'

Right on, kid.

"Number two? 'Financial reform, because it doesn't address Fannie and Freddie and vastly expands oversight of the financial services sector.'

Yep.

"Three? 'His view on what government should and should not do.' Simply put, Frank wants an always-expanding federal government, and Bielat doesn't."

I think the Tea Party could even get onboard with him on that. Bielat is concerned with the expansion of programs and the entitlement spending that comes with it, which is something that is vitally important to deficit reduction, but most politicians avoid like the plague.

I like him.  I don't give him great odds, but then, there is the Scott Brown thing.

House Lamely Votes to Adjourn and Skips Vote on Taxes

To further cement the fact that Obama and Pelosi are no longer in the driver's seat, many House Democrats voted not to adjourn today and Pelosi barely won the adjournment motion by a 210-209 vote. The 39 Democrats voting against adjournment did so after Minority Leader John Boehner urged them to stay and force a vote to extend the Bush tax cuts. Boehner said that those voting to adjourn would be "putting their election above the needs of [their] constituents."

Not surprisingly, the 39 who voted "no" are involved in heated races across the country and have joined Republicans in arguing for extending all of the tax cuts, in opposition to the President. They were Jason Altmire (PA), Gerry Connolly (VA), Travis Childers (MS), Joe Donnelly (IN), Steve Driehaus (OH), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD), Frank Kratovil (MD), Walt Minnick (ID) Tom Perriello (VA), John Adler (NJ), Michael Arcuri (NY), Melissa Bean (IL), Tim Bishop (NY), Bobby Bright (AL), Chris Carney (PA), Chet Edwards (TX), Bill Foster (IL), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ), Martin Heinrich (NM), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ), Betsy Markey (CO), Jim Marshall (GA), Mike McIntyre (NC), Mike McMahon (NY), Jerry McNerney (CA), Mike Michaud (ME), Harry Mitchell (AZ), Patrick Murphy (PA), Glenn Nye (VA), Gary Peters (MI), Mark Schauer (MI), Heath Shuler (NC), Zack Space (OH), Gene Taylor (MS) and Dina Titus (NV). Three House Democrats who are running for Senate, Brad Ellsworth (IN), Charlie Melancon (LA) and Joe Sestak (PA) also voted against adjournment.

Look for all of these people to lose come November.  It's too late, fellas.

The Last Ditch Effort of House Dems

Because Pelosi knew she didn't have the numbers, she pushed off a vote on the expiring Bush tax cuts until after the November elections. However, she couldn't prevent some of her Democratic House members from voicing their opposition to the President's plan to extend only some of the tax savings. A group of 47 House Democrats sent her a letter today, detailing their wish to continue all of the Bush-era tax cuts and "breaking ranks" with Obama and Pelosi, as they failed to do during the health care debate. 

The letter addressed Pelosi and urged her to maintain current tax levels as, "Raising taxes...could discourage individuals and businesses from saving and investing." The letter was signed by several vulnerable freshman hoping to keep their seats in the fall. 

I hate to break it to the 47, but no amount of letter writing can undo the health care and stimulus legislation they helped enact. When they go to the polls, voters will not forget that they traded favors for votes on critically important legislation that the country did not want.

McMahon Within 5 of Blumenthal

Republican candidate Linda McMahon is now the closest in the polls she has been to beating Democrat Richard Blumenthal, who now holds only a five-point lead in Connecticut’s race for the Senate seat. The survey pegs  Blumenthal with 50% to McMahon's 45% while 4% are undecided. This is the closest the race has been since the New York Times revealed that Blumenthal lied about his service in Vietnam, which  never occurred.  

Obama Approval Tanking

Yesterday we discovered that the President failed to sell out a crowd at the Roosevelt Hotel in New York City despite calls and pleas for supporters to pay $100 per ticket to see him speak for a half hour. Apparently, he can no longer sell out a crowd, even at bargain basement prices.

Today, we have concrete proof of the severity of his unpopularity. A new CNN poll confirmed that he is tanking. In fact, Obama has fallen 8 points in three weeks, and now has a 42% approval rating. And this was a CNN poll. The real number is likely even lower.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/24/cnn-poll-obama-at-all-time-low/

This news comes at a time when the GOP is already motivated to get to the polls in November. Each day brings better numbers and news for conservatives, which further validates their cause and heightens their enthusiasm. In fact, apparently, Obama's approval rating is now the same as President Clinton’s in 1994 before the midterm elections that saw Republicans gain control of both the House and Senate. As I predicted several  months ago, this election year we will see the same phenomenon, and in states that are tried and true blue.

Fiesty New York Italians

Yesterday I was shocked to hear that Paladino was within 6 of Cuomo and today I am even more stunned and excited to learn that DioGuardi is within 6 of Gillibrand! This midterm election is going to be one to remember.

President O'Carter?

After it became clear that Obama would best Clinton in the primary, my dad said, "This is a disaster. He will be just like Carter. No one will admit they voted for him." It seems he was right, and now, even his supporters are comparing his political impotency to the former president's during his term. As the article explains, liberal journalists are all but admitting they made a major mistake in picking the chosen one. The unbearable part is, we all have to live with their mistake and not only have to listen to his drone-like speeches, but have to work hard to beat back his disastrous economic and social legislation. 

More Populist Rhetoric from Obama

Democrats are rightfully bewildered and don't know how to use Obama this fall, but maybe they should just tell him to hide and quit making them look so desperate. On his website, Obama is claiming that Republicans are holding the middle class tax cuts "hostage,” because the GOP wants a bill that would extend all of the tax cuts made by President Bush. And what else? He's claiming that the GOP refusal to extend only some of Bush's tax cuts will force him to borrow another $700 billion "to provide an average tax cut of $100,000 to millionaires and billionaires." His populist rhetoric and threats are insulting. Does he really think the American people believe if he does not collect more in taxes from those earning over $200,000, that the country will be propelled to borrow money to close that gap? No amount of ridiculous rhetoric will overshadow our disgust with his "one-party government" that has and will continue to seek more tax increases to support any liberal policy he dreams up, all the while having no concern for an “unsustainable level of deficits its own spending has produced."

Nevada's 14.4% Unemployment Will Push Angle to Win

Nevada's unemployment rate is now the highest in the country, at 14.4%, as 3,000 jobs were cut in the public sector in August. That figure is up from 14.3% this summer, when the state claimed the highest jobless rate in the nation, besting Michigan.  

Nevada's most populous county by far, Clark, has a rate of unemployment of 14.7%, down from its record of 14.8% in August. Why is this important? Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, decides statewide elections in Nevada. Las Vegas has a lot of unionized workers that vote with their unions, universally, for Democrats. Job losses there have led many unionized, younger workers, who would tend to vote for Reid, to move out of the county, and even the state. This protracted, extreme unemployment coupled with the anti-incumbent mood, will propel Angle to victory.

Senate Predictions

2010 Senate Election Predictions:

Alabama:  Shelby will be in Alabama as long as there is air in his lungs. Even with the country's distrust for incumbents, Alabamans still love the man, to the tune of 60%. His challenger, Barnes, only gets 28% of the vote.  SAFE R

Alaska:  Miller is at 50% and wins.  SAFE R

Arkansas:   Boozman is guaranteed to win versus Lincoln who only gets 25% to his 65% of the vote.  SAFE R

Arizona:  McCain is a guaranteed winner over Glassman (who?) after beating his Tea Party primary challenger, but McCain only grabs 51% of the vote to Glassman's 37%, which demonstrates how strong the anti-incumbent sentiment has become.  Even beloved war heroes are close to the chopping block.  SAFE R

California:  The annoyingly blue state is a true toss up, but the polls finally have Fiorina ahead of Boxer. The state is in terrible financial shape and the people didn't get the change they were looking for in Ahnold after Gray Davis was thrown out. It appears as if Whitman may win the governorship seems tough enough to be Christie-like when it comes to dealing with the legislature. Fiorina will ride her coattails victory.  LEANS R 

Colorado:  Buck is only leading Bennet by 4 points, but Colorado is a male-dominated, fairly conservative state. SAFE R

Connecticut: McMahon is still down by 8 points to Blumenthal, which will be hard to overcome at this stage of the game as she has been campaigning a while. Of course, if the GOP gets a lot of people to the polls, this could be an interesting race.  Pray for rain.  LIKELY D

Delaware:  O'Donnell just pulled off her Tea Party victory, and although she is not a very attractive candidate for a myriad of reasons, I think she could potentially come closer than some think if she follows in Rubio's footsteps. After all, she is currently only polling 9 points behind Coons. She will make up ground just like Angle in the weeks ahead. Still, it may not be enough. LIKELY D

Florida: Meeks will not step aside. Rubio, ahead of Crist by a 41 to 30 margin, wins, hands down. SAFE R

Georgia:  Isakson, like his southern counterpart, Shelby, is a favorite son. He is leading 55% to Thurmond's 41% and will seal the deal.  SAFE R

Hawaii:  Inouye has almost 70%.  SAFE D

Idaho:  Crapo (wow, what a terrible name) leads Sullivan 63 to 24%.  It's over.  SAFE R

Illinois:  This race is a true toss up, but it is within 2% while "some other candidate" or "other" gets 6%, so if most of those votes go red, as I suspect, Kirk wins.  LIKELY R

Indiana:  Why do some put this in the toss up category? The Hoosier state is going red as there is a 16 point spread between Coats and Ellsworth.  Come on.  SAFE R

Iowa:  Grassley has 20% on Conlin.  SAFE R

Kansas:  Moran, who is leading by a 61 to 28, will not lose.  SAFE R

Kentucky:  Paul has it be 15 points.  This is not a toss up.  SAFE R

Louisiana:  Despite his troubles, Vitter leads Melancon 54 to 33% and will remain intact.  SAFE R

Maryland:  To my earlier point, Mikulski has a 16 point advantage over Wargotz, but no one calls it a toss up like Indiana. Everyone calls crab land safely Democratic, which it is.  SAFE D

Missouri:  Blunt has 10 over Carnahan.  It is less of a toss up and more likely R as it is a conservative midwestern town.  LIKELY R

Nevada:  Angle is in a dead heat with Reid and she was said to be O'Donnell-like at the start. LIKELY R

New Hampshire:  The Republicans will take the live free or die state with Ayotte ahead 51 to Hodes' 44%.  SAFE R

New York:  My state has been hopelessly blue since Pataki left, but this time, only because no one challenged the unpopular Gillibrand and because Schumer will be here forever.  Ugh.  SAFE D

North Carolina:  Burr's 54% will be enough to put Marshall away.  It's not likely GOP.  SAFE R 

North Dakota:  Hoeven is winning by 45%.  It's over.  SAFE R

Ohio:  Portman is ahead of Fisher by 8.  SAFE R

Oklahoma:  Coburn has over 40% on Rogers in the Texas-like state.  SAFE R

Oregon:  Wyden is up 18 points.  SAFE D

Pennsylvania:  Philly will not drag this state blue this time!  Toomey is up by 8 to Sestak.  SAFE R

South Carolina:  DeMint 63% to Greene's 19%.  How did he get 19% of the vote?  SAFE R

South Dakota:  Johnson, the incumbent, is not suffering from the anti-incumbent mood.  SAFE D 

Utah:  Lee has 54% and will win.  SAFE R

Vermont:  Leahy with 63% is impenetrable.  SAFE D

Wisconsin:  They have made their mistakes, but Feingold is losing by 7 points! SAFE R 

Washington: Rossi is down by 5% and only 3% report that they are unsure of their vote. It seems like that state might be gone.  SAFE D

West Virginia:  This race is closer than both CT and WA and is really a conservative state that has been held hostage by the Byrd Dixiecrats for decades. Raese is within 5 and could do it.  LIKELY R

Ellmers Tied with "Tough Guy" Etheridge

Renee Ellmers, the conservative Republican running against seven-time incumbent Democrat Robert "tough guy" Etheridge in North Carolina’s Second District, the guy who grabbed a conservative college student on the streets of D.C., (watch here), is now tied or besting the old thug by one in the latest polls. 

http://www.conservativenc.com/index.php/home/9-featured/2865-ellmers-leading-etheridge-in-latest-poll-

http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/etheridge_and_ellmers_even_in_new_poll

Admittedly, these results are from June, but with the national tide turning against the Democrats, one has to assume Ellmers has picked up a few more points on old Bob over the summer.

Can O'Donnell Follow Rubio's Lead?

Last night's victory for Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware Republican senatorial primary will likely lead to a Republican defeat in the election in November, but the optimist in me holds out a shred of hope that O'Donnell pulls it off. I'm not delusional.  I know it will be extremely difficult, but if O'Donnell perfectly mimics Marco Rubio's performance in Florida, she just might eke by her opponent. After all, Rubio was a little-known Tea Party candidate who was also labelled a rightwing nut. If O'Donnell can follow his lead and soften her rhetoric enough to appeal to Independents, she has a chance.

Of course, Rubio has the gift of oratory, while O'Donnell comes across as Palinesque. Her lack of oratorical skills will  be much more difficult to overcome than her financial history or abstinence campaign.

Republicans Now Lead in 4 Out of 5 Senate Toss Up Races

Fox poll results:

Florida: Rubio (R) 43%    Crist (I) 27%    Meek (D) 21%

Nevada: Angle (R) 45%    Reid (D) 44%

Ohio: Portman (R) 48%    Fisher (D) 41%

Pennsylvania: Toomey (R) 47%    Sestak (D) 41%

California: Boxer (D) 46%    Fiorina (R) 44%

Despite their potential bent, they are largely in line with Rasmussen polls:

Florida: Rubio (R) 40%    Crist (I) 30%    Meek (D) 21%

Nevada: Angle (R) 48%    Reid (D) 48%

Ohio: Portman (R) 49%    Fisher (D) 41%  

Pennsylvania: Toomey (R) 45%    Sestak (D) 39%

California: Fiorina (R) 48%    Boxer (D) 47%

Moore Idiocy

Fatty Moore has once again spoken out in opposition to the sane majority in a worthless babble session on his blog urging people to donate to the Ground Zero mosque. This time, he tells us that the Imam should not only build his mosque near the World Trade Center site, but right on top of it. He argues that Islam was hijacked (my words, not his) from the Muslims at Ground Zero and should be given back on the same spot. He then claims that McDonald's, which is two blocks from Ground Zero, is the real offender, since it has killed more people than the terrorists did on September 11, 2001. 

Maybe we should force McDonald's workers in the financial district to wear jilbab and give Muslims free burger Fridays? My guess is that he would gladly encourage this type of self inflicted apology since he hates both American ideals and capitalism.

75% Believe Congress Should Take a Pay Cut Until they Balance the Budget

Although 75% of overall voters believe that Congress should balance the budget or take a pay cut, the number rises to 85% when considering only mainstream voters and failing to factor in the liberal "political class," 74% of which do not think congress should see a decline in pay until they balance the budget. Who are these morons? 

Traficant Back on the Scene

Taking a page out of Marion Barry's book, Jim Traficant is back on the ballot after emerging from prison. He will challenge Democratic incumbent Tim Ryan, his former congressional aide, and Republican Jim Graham for the house seat he held for 17 years before his 2002 convictions on racketeering, bribery and tax evasion charges. Let's hope the voters of Ohio aren't as forgiving as their counterparts in D.C.   

DRINK 'EM UP WHILE THEY'RE GOING DOWN!

How exciting! Take a look and drink up:

A new paper in the journal Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research suggests that - for reasons that aren't entirely clear - abstaining from alcohol does actually tend to increase one's risk of dying even when you exclude former drinkers. The most shocking part? Abstainers' mortality rates are higher than those of heavy drinkers.

Moderate drinking, which is defined as one to three drinks per day, is associated with the lowest mortality rates in alcohol studies. Moderate alcohol use (especially when the beverage of choice is red wine) is thought to improve heart health, circulation and sociability, which can be important because people who are isolated don't have as many family members and friends who can notice and help treat health problems.