GOP Holds Ten-Point Lead in Generic Poll

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in the newest Gallup tracking of voter preferences. This lead is the largest so far this year for Republicans as well as the largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot. In fact, the leads, varying from 6 to 10 points this month, are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup's history of tracking since 1942. The highest gap prior to 2010 was five points, registered in June 2002 and July 1994.

Will this year's Republican gains match 1994 and 2002, or will the double digit generic lead catapult Republicans to an historically unprecedented defeat of House and Senate Democrats? One pundit, Dick Morris, believes 2010 will dwarf 1994 because "we haven’t yet seen the full impact of the last minute party shift that will take place." According to Morris, voters who are now undecided "will transform a massive Republican win into an even more massive victory." He predicts this outcome because as he says, the uninvolved voters will decide to go with the rest of the country - away from Obama's Democrats since "surveys suggest that they share the disenchantment" of the decided voters with Obama’s performance.

Morris further warns Democrats that the undecided voters will not prove to be the less educated, young or minority voters on whom their party depends as the lack of enthusiasm in the Democratic base "indicates that these voters are likely to decide by staying home" since the Republicans have a two to one enthusiasm advantage about voting in the 2010 elections. If Morris is right, and untouchable states like California, Connecticut and Nevada go red, I will have renewed faith in our citizens.