Massachusetts Senatorial Race Predictions

Special election day in Massachusetts is here. The predictions are in: The PPP poll is dead even: http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/senate-republicans/final-mass-poll-will-show-race-too-close-to-call-pollster-says/ Ed Morrisey from Hotair predicts a big win for Scott Brown: http://hotair.com/archives/2010/01/17/polls-settling-brown-still-edges-coakley-in-the-final-hours/ Per a pundit on CNN, the White House is predicting that Brown wins: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO-Sv9lASVE&feature=player_embedded Charlie Cook, the oft-referenced elections analyst says Brown is the favorite, but isn't yet predicting a win: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31593.html The Intrade market for the race had Brown's price up to 56 at one point last week, but it's dropped back to 50/50. If you aren't familiar with Intrade, it's a site which treats the probability of future events like a market. People actually bet on an outcome so the theory is that it's a very accurate indicator of the true state of a race. So, this tells the pollsters that it is still going to be very close. http://www.intrade.com/ However, most publically, and some quietly, are predicting a Brown win. The next question that follows is, what will happen to the health care bill? GOP lawyers are going to argue that Kirk, the interim Kennedy replacement, will be constitutionally prohibited from casting any votes in the Senate after Tuesday in the event that we have a longer term situation such as the Bush v. Gore decision from the Supreme Court: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/barnes-massachusetts-senatorial-race-and-obamacare But if Brown comfortably wins, what do the Dems do? Does the House agree to no changes to the health care bill so it doesn't go back to the Senate for a vote? With poll numbers looking dim, Democratic pundits are suggesting Obama will spend the last bit of his political capital pressuring House members to do exactly this. My prediction? I think that Brown takes Coakley by 3.5%, which will be enough to call off the Democratic lawyers involved in the Coleman-Franken recount. Brown has more support on the ground than his campaign knows what to do with and has secured the majority of the independent vote, which makes up the largest voting block in Massachusetts. The motivation for Coakley voters is mainly artificial and she is perceived as a cold-hearted, arrogant, partisan candidate without any real platform aside from a "yes" vote for the health care bill and higher taxes in Taxachusetts. What then? I predict a large number of House members refuse to pass the Senate's bill and it is defeated, once and for all, causing Obama to spend the majority of his State of the Union address lamenting that Republicans have defeated change, as it will never occur to him that the public defeated his bill, because it was too intrusive and expensive.